中国东南沿海热带气旋强度变化及对核电厂的影响分析  

Analysis on the Change of Intensity of Tropical Cyclones in Southeastern China and its Impacts on Relevant Nuclear Power Plant Sites

作　　者：纪忠华[1] 王璐[1] 李亮[1] 吴珍梅 Ji Zhonɡhuɑ;Wɑnɡ Lu;Li Liɑnɡ;Wu Zhenmei(Nuclear and Radiation Safety Center, MEP, Beijing 100082, China;Zhejiang Provincial Hydrology Bureau, Hangzhou 310009, China)

机构地区：[1]环境保护部核与辐射安全中心,北京100082 [2]浙江省水文局,杭州310009

出　　处：《核安全》2018年第2期52-57,共6页Nuclear Safety

摘　　要：利用上海台风研究所发布的1949—2014年热带气旋资料,筛选出了登陆我国东南沿海以及进入位于东南沿海核电厂址的400km半径范围内的热带气旋样本。采用Mann Kendall趋势检验及突变检验方法对筛选出的热带气旋样本序列进行了相关分析。结果表明:登陆我国东南沿海的热带气旋年平均气压强度增强趋势显著,而在核电厂址调查区域内的样本的增强趋势并不明显,但显示出一定的地区差异;进入广东以南地区的4个厂址调查区域内热带气旋样本序列在2004年前后都发生了突变;2014年数据显示,使得相关核电厂址千年一遇热带气旋中心气压都有不同程度的降低,且以发生了突变的热带气旋样本降低幅度最大。Using the tropical cyclone data（ 1949 —2014） published by Shanghai Typhoon Research Institute,the samples of tropical cyclones landing in the southeast coast of China and entering the radius of400 km in the southeast coastal nuclear power plants were selected. The sequence of the selected tropical cyclone samples was analyzed by using Mann Kendall trend test and mutation test. The results show that：the average annual pressure intensity of tropical cyclone landing in southeastern China has a significant enhancement trend,and the enhancement trend of samples in the survey area of nuclear power plant is not obvious,but it shows a certain regional difference,while the enhancement trend of the samples in the nuclear power plant site survey area is not obvious,but shows certain differences by regions; A mutation has occurred at 2004 based on samples of 4 sites in the south of Guangdong; compared with the tropical cyclone samples before 2004,the increase of the data to the 2014 makes the 1000 year return period central pressures of the tropical cyclone have a different degree of reduction,and the tropical cyclone sample with the mutation has the largest reduction.

关 键 词：核电厂 热带气旋 突变检验 趋势检验 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]