HEC-HMS模型在武水流域山洪预报中的应用  

Application of HEC-HMS model for mountain flood forecasting in the Wushui Basin

作　　者：邹杨[1] 胡国华[1] 于泽兴[1] 顾庆福[2] 陈肖[1] 宁迈进[2] ZOU Yang1, HU Guohua1 , YU Zexing1, GU Qingfu2, CHEN Xiao1 , NING Maijin2(1. College of Hydraulic Engineering ,Changsha University of Science ＆ Technology, 410114, Changsha, China; 2. Hunan Bureau of Hydrology and Water Resources Surveying, 410007, Changsha, Chin)

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学水利工程学院,长沙410114 [2]湖南省水文水资源勘测局,长沙410007

出　　处：《中国水土保持科学》2018年第2期95-102,共8页Science of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：湖南省重大水利科技计划项目"水土保持措施对山区洪水过程的影响研究"(项目编号:2013-232-5)

摘　　要：山洪灾害常造成重大经济损失甚至人员伤亡。以湖南湘江武水流域为例,基于地理信息系统和遥感技术的水文模型集成系统为山洪预报提供了新的思路,在解译了研究流域2010年土地利用类型数据的基础上,采用HEC-HMS水文模型对武水流域各场次洪水进行模拟预报,利用DEM及流域出口信息划分子流域计算单元,利用遥感影像结合GIS技术提取流域信息,采用SCS径流曲线法进行产流计算,采用SCS单位线法计算直接径流,利用马斯京根法进行河道汇流演进,运用指数退水模型模拟流域基流,并以2000—2008年的17场实测洪水数据进行参数的率定,用2009—2014年的10场典型洪水进行验证。结果表明:模型率定期17场洪水洪峰流量相对误差绝对值均<20%,模拟合格率达到100%,峰现时差均≤1 h,绝对平均Nash效率系数为0.816,率定出的水文参数准确有效;验证期的10场洪水,洪峰流量相对误差合格率达90%,峰现时差均<1 h,Nash效率系数均>0.7。HEC-HMS水文模型在武水流域模拟效果较好,可应用于该流域山洪预报工作,且相较于多峰洪水,单峰洪水的模拟效果更佳。[Background]Mountain flood disaster often leads to heavy economic losses,even casualties.The integration of hydrological model system with Geographic Information System（ GIS） and remote sensing technology provides a new perspective for mountain flood forecast. By using Wushui Basin in the Xiangjiang Basin as an example,this study investigated the application of HEC-HMS model for mountain flood. [Methods] Based on the land-use classifications derived from the 2010 TM remote sensing images,the mountain flood process was simulated by using semi-distributed hydrological model.According to the DEM and the outlet locations in the basin,the study area was divided into a set of subbasins. The topographic information like the length of the river,sub-basin area,the longest flow path slope and other characteristic parameters were extracted by using remote sensing image and GIS technology. Meanwhile,the rainwater and the runoff database were established in the visual data storage system HEC-DSSvue. The rainfall and flow time series of typical floods in the period from 2000 to 2014 were interpolated and converted into regular time series based on the mathematical function of HECDSSvue. In addition,according to the actual situation of the study basin,the SCS runoff curve number extension was applied to calculate the runoff volume. The SCS unit hydrograph method and the exponential recession method were selected for calculating direct runoff and base flow. The Muskingum method was used to guide flow routing. Moreover,the model parameters were calibrated by the 17 observed flood events from 2000-2008,and the 10 observed flood events from 2009-2014 were used to validate the performance of the model. The good-of-fit between simulated and observed flood events were evaluated by using the relative error and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient. [Results]The results showed that the relative errors of peak flow were less than 20% and the time errors of peak flow were within 1 hour.the absolute average Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0. 8

关 键 词：HEC-HMS模型 GIS 山洪预报 武水流域 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]