离岸市场人民币流动性的供给分析及影响因素研究  

Research on the Supply of RMB Liquidity in Offshore Market and Its Influencing Factors

作　　者：许艺琼 陶士贵[1] Xu Yiqiong,Tao Shigui(School of Business,Nanjing Normal University,JiangsuNanjing 21002)

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学商学院,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《金融发展研究》2018年第5期27-33,共7页Journal Of Financial Development Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"应对军事冲突的中国外汇储备风险防控研究"(13BJY171)

摘　　要：本文从长期流动性供给、短期流动性供给两个角度分析了香港离岸市场人民币流动性供给,并运用结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型,以2010年4月至2017年4月的香港离岸人民币存款为样本数据,检验了可能影响香港离岸市场人民币流动性的相关因素,结果显示人民币跨境结算对离岸市场人民币流动性供给具有显著的正效应,人民币汇率预期对离岸市场人民币流动性供给具有显著的负效应,在岸市场与离岸市场的利差对离岸市场人民币流动性供给具有正效应。因此,我国在推进人民币国际化进程中,应继续完善人民币跨境结算,关注汇率预期波动的潜在影响,加强对离岸市场人民币流动性的预期管理。This paper analyzes the supply of RMB liquidity in Hong Kong offshore market from the perspective of long-term liquidity supply and short-term liquidity supply. With the SVAR model, using the Hong Kong offshore RMB deposit in April 2010 to April 2017 as sample data to test the factors that may affect the liquidity of RMB in Hong Kong’s offshore market. The result shows that RMB cross-border settlement has a significant positive impact on the liquidity supply of RMB in the offshore market;the RMB exchange rate expectations have a significant negative effect on the liquidity supply of RMB in the offshore market. The difference in interest rates between onshore and offshore markets has a positive effect on the liquidity supply of RMB in the offshore market. Therefore,in the process of RMB internationalization,our country should continue to improve the cross-border trade RMB settlement,focus on the potential impact of expected exchange rate fluctuations,and strengthen the liquidity management of the RMB.

关 键 词：香港离岸市场 人民币流动性供给 人民币国际化 SVAR模型 

分 类 号：F822[经济管理—财政学]