安徽省商品房价格波动影响因素实证分析  

Empirical analysis on influencing factors of price fluctuation of housing in Anhui Province

作　　者：高静 朱家明[2] GAO Jing a,ZHU Jiaming b(a.School of Finance, Anhui University of Finance ＆ Economics,Bengbu Anhui 233000, China;b.School of Statistics and Applied Mathematics, Anhui University of Finance ＆ Economics,Bengbu Anhui 233000, Chin)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学金融学院,安徽蚌埠233000 [2]安徽财经大学统计与应用数学学院,安徽蚌埠233000

出　　处：《阜阳师范学院学报（自然科学版）》2018年第2期61-65,共5页Journal of Fuyang Normal University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71201034);安徽省高校重大研究项目(SK2016A0697)资助

摘　　要：持续走高的房价趋势已逐渐影响到人民生活和经济发展,引起了政府的高度重视。基于安徽省1997-2016年房地产行业的数据,运用主成分分析法从原始变量中提取3个主成分,建立回归模型,定量研究各因素对安徽省商品房价格的影响程度。研究结果表明:各因素对房价上涨的影响程度由大到小依次为货币供应量、常住人口数量、城镇居民人均可支配收入、房屋竣工面积、居民消费价格指数、地方财政房产税、人均GDP、城镇化率、房地产开发投资额、土地购置费用、房地产开发企业个数。The trend of rising house prices has gradually affected the people’s life and economic development, which has attracted the high attention of the government. Based on the data of real estate industry from 1997 to 2016 in Anhui Province, we use principal component analysis to extract three principal components from the original variables, establish a regression model,and quantify the influence of each factor on the housing price in Anhui Province. The results show that the effect of each index on the rise of housing price is money supply, resident population, urban per capita disposable income, housing area, the consumer price index, the completion of local finance property taxes, per capita GDP, urbanization rate, real estate development investment, land purchase expenses, the number of real estate development enterprises.

关 键 词：主成分分析 房价 影响因素 线性回归 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济] F224