两阶段可修串联系统的变点控制图与维修策略整合研究  

Integrating a change-point control chart and maintenance policy for two-stage series repairable systems

作　　者：仲建兰[1] ZHONG Jian-lan(School of Management ＆ School of Tourism, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry Univ., Fuzhou 350002,Chin)

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学管理学院,福建福州350002

出　　处：《高校应用数学学报（A辑）》2018年第2期167-178,共12页Applied Mathematics A Journal of Chinese Universities(Ser.A)

基　　金：教育部人文社科青年项目(17YJC630231);福建农林大学"校杰出青年科研人才"计划(xjq201736);福建农林大学社科及软科学研究(CXZX2016225);福建省教育厅中青年项目(JAS70130)

摘　　要：针对两阶段串联可修系统,考虑系统的输出为多个质量特性且不同阶段均可能出现异常的情形,采用变点控制图监控系统,揭示系统的状态并据此进行相应的维护策略.首先,给出监控多阶段系统的变点控制图.其次,考虑两阶段过程均可能出现异常因素的情形,剖析过程演变可能的场景,进一步假设异常因素的发生服从一般分布,给出每个场景发生的概率;同时,分析维修行为发生的概率.再次,根据更新报酬理论构建变点控制图与维修策略整合的期望收益模型;采用具体实例来比较分析所提出的收益模型与单独的维修策略的收益模型,其结果表明构建的模型的明显优势;最后,运用分式析因设计对模型输入参数进行了敏感性分析.For two-stage series repairable system, a change-point control chart is used to monitort he system to reveal state of the system, and then the corresponding maintenance policy is carried out. Firstly, a change-point control chart is given to monitor the multistage system. Secondly, the possible scenarios and the probability of occurrence of each scenario are analyzed, assuming that assignable causes may occur in both two-stage, which follow general distribution; and the probability of the corresponding maintenance policy is obtained based on the scenarios. Thirdly, a procedure for calculating average revenue is presented according to renew-reward theory. Then, a numerical example is given to illustrate the application of the proposed integrated model. The results show that the integrated model outperforms the maintenance model in terms of average revenue earning. Finally, using fractional factor design, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to develop insights into input parameters that in°uence the integration e？orts.

关 键 词：串联可修系统 变点控制图 维修策略 更新报酬理论 

分 类 号：O213.1[理学—概率论与数理统计]