青藏高原东侧不同云类对气温变化影响的初步分析  

Preliminary Analysis on the Influence of Cloud Amount and Temperature over East Side of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

作　　者：张琪[1,2] 李跃清[1] 任景轩 ZHANG Qi;LI Yueqing;REN Jingxuan(Institute of plateau meteorology, CMA/ Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, Sichuan, China;Meteorological Observatory in Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610071, Sichuan, China;Chinese People＇s Liberation Army 78127 Unit, Chengdu 610011, Sichuan, China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所、高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,四川成都610072 [2]四川省气象台,四川成都610071 [3]中国人民解放军78127部队,四川成都610011

出　　处：《高原气象》2018年第3期734-746,共13页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：四川省应用基础研究计划重点项目(2016JY0046);公益性行业(气象)科研专项经费重大项目(GYHY201406001)：国家自然科学基金重点项目(91337215)

摘　　要：利用1984-2009年青藏高原东侧的地面气温和ISCCP D2云资料,对不同云类与气温的关系及影响进行了SVD、对比和合成分析。结果表明,20世纪80年代是近50年来川渝盆地最冷的10年,90年代中期是川渝盆地由偏冷向偏暖变化的一个重要转折期,且川渝盆地变暖滞后全国主要是由春季和秋季气温异常造成,其中盆地西部是显著异常区。雨层云、卷云、深对流云与气温均存在显著关系,且与气温关系和影响程度均不同;其中,雨层云、深对流云产生"温室效应"与气温存在正相关关系,卷云反射太阳短波辐射与气温呈负相关关系;由于雨层云、深对流云产生降水削弱增温效果,不及卷云与气温的关系突出。另外,雨层云、卷云、深对流云3者之间存在显著相关关系,且卷云与雨层云、深对流云均存在负相关关系,雨层云与深对流云之间呈正相关关系;3者间卷云与雨层云的负相关最为显著。鉴于这3种云类共同影响气温且与气温相关较显著,建立多云回归模型,并通过了显著性检验,对川渝盆地的气候变化预报起到一定的指导作用。Based on the meteorological monthly mean temperature data and ISCCP D2 data, using the SVD, sta- tistical analysis and synthetic analysis methods, the relationship and influence of cloud amount and temperature were analyzed over east side of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The research results show that the 1980s were the col- dest decade in the Sichuan and Chongqing basin in the last half century, and the mid-90s were an important turn- ing point in the change of the Sichuan and Chongqing basin from cold to warm. The lag of warming is mainly caused by the abnormal temperature of spring and autumn, and the west of the basin is a notable anomaly. The nimbostratus, cirrus and deep convective cloud are positively correlated with temperature, and the degree of in- fluence and relationship are different. Nimbostratus and deep convective cloud has positive correlation with the temperature of ＂greenhouse effect＂, the cirrus that reflected solar short wave radiation is negatively related to the temperature. Because nimbostratus, deep convective cloud produce precipitation and weaken the warming effect, so the relationship between cirrus and temperature is better. There is a significant correlation between the nimbo- stratus, cirrus and deep convective cloud. The correlation coefficient between cirrus and nimbostratus, deep con- vective cloud is negative, but the nimbostratus is positively correlated with cirrus. The correlation coefficient be- tween cirrus and nimbostratus is the bigger among those correlation coefficients. In view of the fact that the three clouds affect the temperature together and have significantly correlation with it, we built a cloudy regression model that has passed the significance test.

关 键 词：雨层云 卷云 深对流云 气温 

分 类 号：P423[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]