投入要素与生产率对中国农业增长的贡献研究  

The Contribution of Inputs and Productivity to Agricultural Growth in China

作　　者：龚斌磊 GONG Binlei

机构地区：[1]浙江大学中国农村发展研究院

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2018年第6期4-18,共15页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

摘　　要：本文利用刀切模型平均法,综合考虑5种生产率分析模型,并根据各模型解释能力赋予不同权重,旨在得到更全面而准确的估计;在此基础上,本文利用增长核算表解析了1990—2015年中国农业增长的内部结构。结果显示,中国农业增长中投入要素的贡献率已经减弱,其中,劳动力和土地的贡献率低于化肥和农机;而生产率的贡献率却在增强,其中,技术贡献率日趋提高,特别是效率还有提升空间。本文研究表明,推进供给侧改革、实现农业持续增长,前提是需要保证投入要素的稳定供给,重点是要促进农业效率的不断提高,而长期动力应该是增加农业科研的持续投资。It is important to analyze the contribution of inputs and productivity to agriculture growth as a guide to further develop this sector. Existing studies use different models to analyze China＇s agricultural productivity,which is difficult to guarantee the accuracy and leads to different results. This paper uses a model averaging method that considers five stochastic frontier models simultaneously by assigning weights to each model according to their ability to explain the data. This approach derives more accurate estimation and is utilized to analyze China agricultural growth in 1990-2015 with the help of the growth accounting table.

关 键 词：中国农业 增长贡献率 生产率分析 随机前沿模型 模型平均方法 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F323