“一带一路”倡议是否推动了入境旅游的发展?——基于“21世纪海上丝绸之路”沿线地区双重差分的实证  

Does “The Belt and Road” Initiative Promote the Development of Inbound Tourism?——Based on the Empirical Analysis of Double Difference of District Along the “Twenty-first Century Maritime Silk Road”

作　　者：唐睿 冯学钢 TANG Rui;FENG Xue-gang(Faculty of Economics and Management, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学经济与管理学部,上海200241

出　　处：《上海对外经贸大学学报》2018年第4期17-27,共11页Journal of Shanghai University of International Business and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目"我国反季旅游市场潜力的区域差异与开发策略研究"(项目编号:12AJY008)资助

摘　　要：基于"一带一路"倡议背景,利用2000~2015年的数据对"21世纪海上丝绸之路"沿线地区入境旅游发展进行分析,发现上海发展入境旅游的举措类型最为丰富,福建大力举办专题会议和主题节庆,广东号召民间积极参与,海南聚焦于境外市场开拓。利用双重差分检验可知,"一带一路"倡议推动了"21世纪海上丝绸之路"沿线地区入境旅游的发展,旅游企业从业人员的增长、企业数量的增加、产业结构的优化、对外开放程度的扩大、旅游交通条件的改善均对"21世纪海上丝绸之路"沿线地区入境旅游发展产生了促进作用。最后提出了扩大对外开放、优化产业结构、培养旅游人才、完善旅游交通建设等建议。Under the ＂The Belt and Road＂ initiative background, the development of inbound tourism along the ＂Twenty-first Century Maritime Silk Road＂ was analyzed based on the data from 2000 to 2015. It is found that the inbound tourism initiatives had most abundant type in Shanghai, special conferences and theme festivals were popular in Fujian, Guangdong called for active participation of civil society, Hainan focused on overseas market development. Using the double difference test, it can be seen that the initiative of ＂The Belt and Road＂ pushed forward the development of inbound tourism in district along the ＂Twenty-first Century Maritime Silk Road＂, the growth of tourism staff, the increase in the number of enterprises, the optimization of industrial structure, the expansion of opening up, and the improvement of tourism traffic conditions have contributed to the development of inbound tourism in district along the ＂Twenty-first Century Maritime Silk Road＂. Finally, some suggestions are put forward, such as expanding opening to the outside world, optimizing industrial structure, cultivating tourism talents and improving the construction of tourist traffic.

关 键 词：“一带一路”倡议 入境旅游 21世纪海上丝绸之路 双重差分 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]