基于Rosenblueth法的土石坝溃坝概率实时分析  

Real-time Failure Probability Analysis of Earth Rockfill Dam Based on Rosenblueth Method

作　　者：蔡荨[1,2] 王昭升[1,2] 厉丹丹[1,2] CAI Qian;WANG Zhao-sheng;LI Dan-dan(Dam Safety and Management Center;Safety Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China)

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院大坝安全管理中心,江苏南京210029 [2]南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2018年第7期61-65,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0401602);水利部公益性行业专项(201501033)

摘　　要：溃坝事件具有突发性,为给第一时间的应急处置决策提供科学依据,需实时分析、评估溃坝风险。为此,研究了溃坝概率分析方法在计算精度与计算效率上的差异,对不同可靠度分析方法的计算原理进行比较;在土石坝主要溃决模式分析基础上,提出采用Rosenblueth法的土石坝溃坝概率实时分析方法,并用实例验证该方法的有效性。结果表明,Rosenblueth法应用于土石坝风险率分析中比其他方法具有较高的计算效率,能同时满足计算精度与风险实时评估的时效要求。研究结果可为土石坝风险管理与决策提供参考依据。Dam break events often occur suddenly. In order to provide scientific basis for emergency disposition deci- sion-making, it is necessary for real time risk analysis and assessment. The difference of calculation accuracy and efficien- cy for dam failure probability analysis was discussed. The calculation principles of different reliability analysis methods were compared. Based on the analysis of the main failure modes of earth rockfill dam, a real time dam failure probability analysis method was proposed by adopting Rosenblueth Method. The effectiveness of the proposed method was verified by case study. The results show that the Rosenblueth method could meet both time and accuracy requirements in real- time risk assessment of earth rockfill dam failure probability. The research can provide reference for the risk management and decision on earth rockfill dam.

关 键 词：土石坝 风险评估 Rosenblueth法 溃坝概率 实时分析 

分 类 号：TV61[水利工程—水利水电工程]