长三角极化区形成过程中的经济梯度演变特征及政策启示  

Analysis on the Economic Gradient Evolution in the Formation of Yangtze River Delta Polarized Area

作　　者：秦贤宏 段学军[2] QIN Xian-hong;DUAN Xue-jun(Public Administration School of Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China;Nanjing Institute of Geography ＆ Limnology, CAS, Nanjing 210008, China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学公共管理学院,江苏南京211100 [2]中科院南京地理与湖泊研究所,江苏南京211100

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2018年第6期1179-1185,共7页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20170876);教育部人文社科基金项目(17YJC630115);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2016B12214)

摘　　要：经济梯度演变是极化区形成过程中的重要表征,也是区域空间极化研究的核心主题。根据佩鲁等人的"增长极理论"和赫希曼的"极化-涓滴效应学说",从理论上分析了极化区形成过程中的经济梯度演变规律,然后以长三角极化区为实证研究区,在采用主成分分析法计算出2000、2005、2010、2015年4个年份42个城市经济梯度值的基础上,运用区域差异系数、空间自相关分析、梯度-距离曲线模拟、聚类分析与地理分区等方法对研究区的经济梯度值分布及其演变特征进行了分析。结果证实:极化区在形成过程中,将发生区域内部差异先增大再减小、空间格局先集聚再分散、梯度曲线斜率先变陡再变缓等特征。这种极化反转特征不仅是对"增长极理论"和"极化-涓滴效应学说"的进一步验证,而且也可以作为判断一个极化区是否真正成熟的重要标志。The economic gradient evolution is the characteristic of regional spatial polarization,and it is also a hot topic in the study of Economic Polarized Area. This paper firstly constructed the theory of economic gradient evolution according to Perroux ＇s ＂growth pole theory ＂and Hirshman ＇s ＂polarizing and trickling-down effect theory＂,then taken the Yangtze River Delta as the empirical study area,calculated 42 cities＇ economic gradient value by means of principal component analysis（ PCA） method,studied their gradient distribution and evolution characteristics from 2000 to 2015 by using the methods of regional difference coefficient,spatial autocorrelation analysis,cluster analysis,geographical regionalization and gradient-distance curve simulation The results show that the regional internal differences firstly increased and then decreased,the spatial pattern firstly gathered and then dispersed,the slope of gradient curve firstly become steeper and then slower. This polarization reversal law is not only verified the ＂growth pole theory＂and ＂the polarizing and trickling-down effect theory＂again,but also can be used as an important evidence to judge whether an economic polarized area has been formed.

关 键 词：极化区 经济梯度 极化反转 长三角 

分 类 号：F119[经济管理—国际贸易]