国际视野下的中国人口少子化  

Fewer Children in China from an International Perspective

作　　者：茆长宝[1] 穆光宗[2] MAO Changbao;MU Guangzong(The Law School, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu Sichuan, 610059, China;The Institute of Population Research, Peking University, Beijing , 100871, China)

机构地区：[1]成都理工大学法学院,四川成都610059 [2]北京大学人口研究所,北京100871

出　　处：《人口学刊》2018年第4期19-30,共12页Population Journal

基　　金：四川省教育厅2018年度科研项目:四川省少子老龄化与区域经济增长研究(18SB0060);成都理工大学哲学社会科学研究基金项目:全面二孩政策背景下四川人口年龄结构发展态势及其对经济增长影响(YJ2017-NS015)

摘　　要：人口少子化是人口转变的一个人口学结果。中国人口少子化发展阶段性特征明显,先后经过逆人口少子化阶段、人口少子化预备阶段、人口少子化阶段。中国进入人口少子化状态的预备时间短,整体发展速度快。除此以外,在中国人口少子化的发展进程中"未富先少"特征极其明显。不同人口预测情景下的模拟结果显示,即使"全面二孩"政策开始实施,中国在2030年前后仍会几乎不可避免地进入并可能长时间面临超少子化的人口年龄结构状态。中国少儿人口规模、比重下降幅度都将属全球最高国家行列,中国在人口少子化的发展过程中扮演相对领先者的角色。相较于世界其他国家、地区而言,中国人口少子化问题较人口老龄化问题更加突出,这无疑将加剧我国应对人口老龄化挑战的困境。我国需要在战略高度制定人口、经济、社会等具有鼓励生育性质的组合政策,改善未来人口少子化的发展状态,推进人口长期均衡发展。Fewer children is a demographic result of demographic transition. It＇s not only having an obvious stage feature-successively after inverse stage of the fewer children,preparatory stage of the fewer children and stage of the fewer children,but also the preparation time is short,development quickly,not less rich first for the fewer children development are obvious in China. Even if＂comprehensive two children＂policy,all the project prediction results showed that China will go into the fewer children age structure al-most inevitably around 2030 year. China will be among the world＇s highest country in terms of the size andproportion decline for the age from 0 to 14,and during the process of the fewer children,China plays a leading role in the global fewer children development. In addition,compared to the rest of the world,the fewerchildren problem is more prominent in the process of the aging with fewer children in China,which will aggravate China＇s dilemma of coping with the challenges from aging. China needs to formulate a comprehensive policy system contains population,economy and society at a strategic height to improve the status of future fewer children and promote the long-term balanced development of the population.

关 键 词：人口转变 人口少子化 全面二孩政策 

分 类 号：C913.6[经济管理]