中断与融合:人口流动对生育水平的影响  

A Study on the Disruption and Assimilation Effect of the Temporary Rural-to-urban Migrants

作　　者：薛君[1] XUE Jun(Research Center of Youngsters＇ Problem, Henan Normal University ,Xinxiang Henan, 453007, Chin)

机构地区：[1]河南师范大学青少年问题研究中心,河南新乡453007

出　　处：《人口学刊》2018年第4期92-102,共11页Population Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目:生育政策调整下目标人群的生育响应研究(16CRK004);河南省教育厅人文社科项目:河南省生育政策调整下生育响应研究(2017-ZZJH-250);河南师范大学教育科学培育基金;二孩政策计划生育服务项目阶段性成果

摘　　要：目前学术界主要通过对比乡城流动人口与农村本地人口的分孩次平均生育年龄和生育水平来推断中断与融合效应是否存在,但这种研究思路因平均生育年龄的上升既有可能发生在流动中,也有可能发生在流动后而不能直接证明流动事件中断生育行为,因此本文受断点回归思想的启发,基于国家卫计委公布不同年份的全国流动人口动态监测调查数据,利用生育史重构法和年龄别分孩次生育率、分孩次递进生育率等指标,以流动事件为零点对比流动前后的生育率变化,分析乡城流动人口生育水平的变动规律和流动事件对生育行为的中断和融合效应。研究结果发现2015年乡城流动人口的年龄别1孩、2孩生育率相对2013年都表现为一定的推迟趋势,且1孩高峰年龄段生育水平稍微下降,2孩生育水平则表现为明显下降;分孩次递进生育率变动趋势进一步印证以上发现,即2孩递进率、3+孩递进率和总和递进率都表现为较为明显的下降;流动事件对流动人口1孩生育没有明显的干扰,对2孩生育产生了明显的中断效应;融合效应则比较显著,流入地1孩和2孩生育水平都显著低于流出地的生育水平,且有着一定的生育推迟,即使考虑不同年龄队列的生育进度效应,社会融合效应仍比较明显。乡城人口的生育融合效应分析很难在截面数据的基础上控制生育进度效应对分析结果的影响,这有赖于纵向跟踪数据和分析方法的完善。The existing literature shows that the disruption and assimilation effects are mainly inferred by comparing the fertility level of the temporary rural-to-urban migrants with the rural population,but this research idea cannot directly prove that the flow event interrupts the fertility behavior,because the increase in the average fertility age can occur both in the flow and after the flow. Therefore,this paper is inspired bythe idea of Break point regression and based on National Migrant Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey,analyzes the changes of the fertility level of the temporary rural-to-urban migrants and the disruption andassimilation effect of the reproductive behavior by using the fertility history reconstruction method and theparity progression ratio indicators. The results showed that the first marriage rate,1 child,2 child fertilityrate of the temporary rural-to-urban migrants was slightly delayed in 2015,and the fertility level of the 1 child peak age decreased slightly and 2 child fertility level decreased significantly;The parity progressionratio trend is further confirmed the above conclusions,that is,2 child parity progression rate,3＋ child pari-ty progression rate and the sum of the parity progression rate showed a more significant decline;There wasno significant disturbance to 1 childbearing behavior,and a significant disruption effect was observed in thebehavior of 2 childbearing;The assimilation effect is more significant,1 child and 2 child fertility levels ofthe inflow population are significantly lower than the outflow of population fertility level,and has a certainfertility delay. Even considering the effects of fertility tempo in different age groups,the assimilation effectis more obvious. Finally,it is pointed out that the analysis of assimilation effect of temporary rural-to-urban migrants is difficult to control the impact of fertility tempo effects,which depends on the improvement of analysis methods and longitudinal tracking data.

关 键 词：乡城流动人口 生育水平 中断效应 融合效应 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学]