地方政府投资偏好、信贷配置结构与货币政策传导效率  

Local Government Investment Preference,Credit Allocation Structure and Monetary Policy Transmission Efficiency

作　　者：闫先东[1] 朱迪星[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行调查统计司 [2]中国人民银行武汉分行

出　　处：《金融监管研究》2018年第5期14-31,共18页Financial Regulation Research

基　　金：国家社科基金面上项目<新常态下的货币政策转型问题研究>(15BJY157)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：近年来,在较大的经济下行压力下,货币供应量和信贷规模的增速与GDP增速的偏离幅度加大,货币信贷政策传导效率降低的问题开始受到广泛关注。本文认为,地方政府的治理目标体系带来的信贷和投资结构的系统性变化,可能是导致这种偏离的重要原因。对中国总量和分省宏观数据的实证研究表明,由于存在政绩竞争的压力,前期较差的经济表现会促使地方政府将主要的行政、财政和金融资源引导向更易掌控的基础设施领域,将其作为稳增长的着力点。这种现象在市场化程度相对较低、政绩目标相对单一的中部地区尤为明显。而过高的基础设施投资导致的挤出效应等问题,会降低货币供应对长期增长的拉动效率。总体来看,当前基于我国地方政府治理目标的基建投资偏好,是经济下行阶段货币信贷政策传导效率降低、长期经济金融风险持续积累的重要原因之一。In recent years, under economic downward pressure, the money supply growth rates and GDP growth rates deviate significantly. The problem of lower efficiency of monetary policy conduction receives attention. This paper argues that the systematic change of credit and investment structure brought about by the governance target system of local governments should be the important cause of this deviation. The empirical study based on China＇s data shows that due to the achievement of competition pressure, local governments with lower economic growth tend to induce administrative, scal and nancial resources towards easily controllable infrastructure projects, which are taken as the economic growth points. These phenomena are particularly obvious in the midland provinces where marketization is relatively low and the examine of governmental performance is relatively singular. Over-investment in infrastructure crowds out other investments and leads to lower monetary policy efciency. On the whole, the infrastructure preference of local governments is one of the main reasons of lower monetary policy efciency and higher accumulation of financial risk during the era of downward economic growth.

关 键 词：信贷配置结构 基础设施投资 货币政策传导 地方政府债务 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]