暴雨内涝影响下的城市道路交通拥挤特征识别  

Urban traffic congestion caused by rainstorms and innudation

作　　者：胡文燕 李梦雅[1,2] 王军[1,2] 黄清雨 HU Wenyan;LI Mengya;WANG Jun;HUANG Qingyu(Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science （Ministry of Education）, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China;School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University Shanghai 200241, China)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海200241 [2]华东师范大学地理科学学院,上海200241

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2018年第6期772-780,共9页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51761135024;41671095;71373084)~~

摘　　要：近年来,暴雨内涝频繁发生,常引发严重的城市交通拥堵问题。本文利用自主开发的宏观交通模拟工具,模拟了上海市中心城区50年一遇和100年一遇暴雨强度情景下每条路段的小时交通量,通过计算道路饱和度,研究了不同强度暴雨内涝对中心城区高架出入口和重要道路拥挤程度的影响。结果表明:(1)100年一遇暴雨内涝对上海市中心城区道路交通服务能力影响显著,可导致7个高架道路出入口关闭,部分出入口严重拥堵;(2)暴雨内涝对道路拥堵状况影响的差异性明显,变拥挤路段占道路总里程的13.35%,其中一级道路的拥挤程度变化最为明显,如:大连路、武宁路,周家嘴路和长寿路等主要路段服务水平下降。In recent years, pluvial flash floods（PFF） have caused serious traffic congestion and disruption in many big cities. This study investigated the traffic congestion pattern due to PFFs in an intra-urban area through a macro traffic simulation method. A macro traffic flow model was built based on trip distribution and the characteristics of roads and routing. We incorporated rainfall data and simulated the hourly traffic volume on each road segment under two PFF scenarios of 50-year and 100-year return periods by the macro traffic flow model. Next, the variation of volume/capacity（V/C） on each road was calculated to derive the spatial pattern of traffic condition under different PFF scenarios. The results were contrasted to demonstrate the change of congestion pattern on the main roads and entrances/exits of the expressways in the city center of Shanghai to analyze the influence of different PFF scenarios on traffic congestion. The results indicate that（1）PFFs of 50-year return period may have a marginal effect on the traffic system, but PFFs of 100-year return period can pose great threat to the traffic system in the central urban area of Shanghai. Seven exits and entrances of the expressways are closed due to serious inundation and a large portion of the road network becomes more congested;（2） the effect of PFFs on V/C also exhibits spatial disparity over the entire network. Overall, 13.35% of the roads become more congested under 100-year return period. Additionally, the most obvious change of congestion pattern is found on the first-class highways（23.31%）, such as Dalian Road, Wuning Road, Zhoujiazui Road, and Changshou Road.

关 键 词：交通模拟 暴雨内涝 道路网络 饱和度 上海市 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]