基于FMEA与ELECTRE-Ⅲ的CTCS-3风险评估研究  

Risk assessment of CTCS-3 train control system based on FMEA and ELECTRE-Ⅲ

作　　者：牟能冶[1] 邱忠权[1] MU Nengye;QIU Zhongquan(School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu Sichuan 610031, China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2018年第4期163-168,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家哲学社会科学基金资助(12CJL056);中央高校基本科研业务费百人计划项目(2012X03262);成都市科技项目(2015S26013);四川省软科学项目(17RKX0582)

摘　　要：为提升中国列车运行控制系统-3（CTCS-3）的可靠性,建立一个种新的基于失效模式与影响分析（FMEA）与消去与转换法-Ⅲ（ELECTRE-Ⅲ）的风险评估模型。首先利用直觉模糊数（IFNs）刻画不确定评估信息,利用ELECTRE-Ⅲ构造不同潜在失效模式（PFMs）间的级别高于关系,进而将PFMs的风险水平排序;然后进行案例分析,并与传统FMEA方法、加权平均集结算子、多准则妥协解排序法（VIKOR）、逼近理想解排序法（TOPSIS）等方法对比。结果表明：基于FMEA与ELECTRE-Ⅲ的CTCS-3的安全评估模型的稳健性较强,并能有效克服指标间异质性的影响。For the sake of enhancing the reliability of CTCS-3 train control system,a novel risk assessment model based on FMEA and ELECTRE-Ⅲ is built proposed. In the model,IFNs is utilized to characterize the uncertain information,and ELECTRE-Ⅲ is introduced to construct the outranking relations between PFMs,and then the ranking of PFMs based on risk level is achieved. A case study is introduced to compare the proposed model with the traditional FMEA,the weighted arithmetic average aggregation operator,VIKOR and TOPSIS. The results demonstrate that the model built by the authors of this paper has strong robustness and can effectively overcome the influence of the heterogeneity among the indexes.

关 键 词：中国列车运行控制系统-3(CTCS-3) 失效模式与影响分析(FMEA) 直觉模糊数(IFNs) 消去与转换法-Ⅲ(ELECTRE-Ⅲ) 潜在失效模式(PFMs) 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]