全要素生产率与能源消费对碳排放影响的实证分析  

Empirical Study of Effects of Total Factor Productivity and Energy Consumption on Carbon Emissions

作　　者：陈嘉雯 陈华超[2] 徐强[2] Chen Jiawen;Chen Huachao;Xu Qiang(School of Statistics, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China;School of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian Liaoning 116025, China)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学统计学院,上海200241 [2]东北财经大学统计学院,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《统计与决策》2018年第13期130-134,共5页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(13&ZD171);辽宁省教育厅科学研究项目(LN2016JD021)

摘　　要：文章基于总量和分类别（煤炭、石油、天然气和电力）的能源消费以及对应的碳排放,使用自回归分布滞后模型和误差修正模型,分析了中国1980—2016年全要素生产率与能源消费对碳排放的长期和短期动态影响。结果表明：从长期来看,生产率的提高对减少碳排放逐渐产生正向影响,滞后3期对碳排放有促进作用,滞后4期才能对碳排放产生较为显著的抑制作用,而能源消费的不断增加是导致碳排放增加的主要原因;从短期来看,生产率的变化对碳排放的影响微乎其微,碳排放的增加仍然主要来源于能源消费。This paper is based on the energy consumption and corresponding carbon emissions of coal, oil, gas and electricity based on the total amount and classification to analyze the long-term and short-term effects of total factor productivity and energy consumption on carbon emissions in China from 1980 to 2016 by using the autoregressive distributed lag model and error correction model. The results are shown as follows： Firstly, in the long term, the increase in productivity has a positive effect on carbon emissions reduction in a gradual manner; Lag Phase 3 has a promoting effect on carbon emission and the Lag Phase 4 has the inhibitory effect, and the increasing energy consumption is the main reason for the increase of carbon emissions; in the short term,changes in productivity have little impact on carbon emissions, and the increase in carbon emissions is still mainly from energy consumption.

关 键 词：全要素生产率 能源消费 碳排放 自回归分布滞后模型 误差修正模型 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]