铁路隧道TBM施工风险评估  

Risk assessment on the TBM construction of railway tunnels

作　　者：顾伟红[1] 王恩茂[1] 张文达[2] GU Wei-hong;WANG En-mao;ZHANG Wen-da(t School of Civil Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, Chin;China Railway 18th Bureau Lanyu Railway Headquarters, Wudu 746000, Gansu, China)

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学土木工程学院,兰州730070 [2]中铁十八局集团兰渝铁路工程指挥部,甘肃武都746000

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2018年第3期843-848,共6页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51668037)

摘　　要：采用基于熵权的模糊综合评估模型对西秦岭特长铁路隧道TBM施工风险进行分析,识别关键风险因素并提出施工应对策略。首先结合西秦岭隧道项目工程特点,参照《铁路隧道风险评估与管理暂行规定》进行TBM施工风险识别,将其归结为设备风险、掘进风险、辅助工序风险三大方面,对每个方面细分出4项一级风险因素。接着确定各层次风险因素权重：借助专家调查确定一级风险发生的概率等级,运用熵权法确定底层风险权重;运用层次分析法确定三大方面风险权重。最后建立二级模糊综合评判模型,评估西秦岭铁路隧道右线的施工风险等级。通过现场专家调查得到的一级风险因素后果损失等级表建立一级评判隶属度矩阵,进行一级模糊评判;并将结果作为二级评判因素的评价集,进行第二级综合评判,评定该项目为2级风险。同时借助熵权反映底层各风险因素的重要程度,确定关键风险因素并判断其风险等级,提出施工应对措施。The paper intends to study the TBM construction risk assessment and management in the case of the West-Qinling railway tunnel. For successful going on with the construction,we have established a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on the entropy weight to evaluate the risk grade of the typical projects and succeeded in identifying and determining their key risks and in turn brought about the corresponding countermeasures to ensure the construction safety. What we have done with the project can be illustrated as follows： First of all,we have identified and confirmed the main risk factors of the tunnel construction in accordance with the railway risk assessment guide and focused our attention on the 3 main kinds of risks： that is,the risks involved with the equipment application,the risks with the tunnel drilling and the risks of auxiliary procedure,each having 4 specific risk categories. And,secondly,we have analyzed the weights of risk factors at each level. And,then,we have identified and determined the entropy weights of the 1-st-level risks through assessing the risk probability level of the 1 st-level risks in reference to the experts evaluation. What is more,we have gained the weight of the3 main 2 nd-level risks through the hierarchical analysis processing. Then,we have established a 2-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to evaluate the risk grade of the project,which is followed by a consequential level investigation and evaluation to be done by the related experts to build up a subordinate degree matrix of 1-level evaluation index. As a result,the said 1-st grade evaluation result has been used as a evaluation set so as to achieve a 2-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Thus,the evaluation of the TBM construction of the aforementioned railway right line tunnel shows that the overall risk rate of the project should be attributed to level 2. In so doing,the importance of the 1 st-level risk factors can be judged and identified by the entropy weights of the key 1 st-level risk factors. Se

关 键 词：安全工程 TBM施工风险 熵权法 模糊综合评价 风险等级 风险对策 

分 类 号：X947[环境科学与工程—安全科学]