民航机场停机坪安全风险预警阈值界定  

Defining of the early-warning safety risk threshold in the civil aviation airport apron

作　　者：潘丹[1,2] 罗帆[1] PAN Dan;LUO Fan(School of Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China;School of Management, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430081, China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学管理学院,武汉430070 [2]武汉科技大学管理学院,武汉430081

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2018年第3期853-859,共7页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71271163)

摘　　要：为确保民航机场停机坪安全风险预警阈值划分的客观性和科学性,采用最优分割法进行阈值的研究,为停机坪安全风险预警提供科学的判别标准。通过文献分析、政策法规分析和现场调研初步构建停机坪安全风险预警指标体系,采用德尔菲法进行预警指标的重要性筛选,运用三维风险评估模型进行停机坪安全风险评价,采用最优分割法对停机坪安全风险预警阈值进行界定。结果表明,35个预警指标对停机坪安全风险的影响较大,其中停机坪管理人员的安全监管经验和能力、作业人员的操作违规率、飞行员的操纵失误率3个指标的影响最大;停机坪安全风险预警警级划分为无警、轻警、中警及重警4级为最优,预警阈值区间分别为[0,1.87]、（1.87,2.94]、（2.94,3.79]、（3.79,＋∞],且F=17.32〉Fα,通过F检验,表明警级之间差异显著,且与实际最相符。研究规避了传统主观方法划分阈值的随意性,丰富了停机坪安全风险预警阈值的研究。This paper is aimed at identifying and defining the safety risk early-warning threshold of the civil aviation airport apron by using the optimal segmentation method in hoping to promote and guarantee the objectivity and rationality of early-warning threshold and provide a rational judgment standard for the apron safety risk early-warning management. It is just for the aforementioned purpose,we have managed to use the methods of literature review,the administrative management and policy as well as the control regularity analysis in addition to the on-spot investigation to establish the system of the civil aviation airport apron safety risk indicators and the Delphi method to screen out the indicators in accordance with the order of their respective significance for the apron safety risks. Thus,as a result,we have illustrated and confirmed all the 45 indicators and screened out 35 ones. And,later,all the aforementioned indicators and regulations have further been classified into 4 aspects,including human factors,machinery and equipment factors,the environment factors and the management factors. Furthermore,a 3 D safety risk evaluation model has also been set up to evaluate the risks involved. And,eventually,the optimal segmentation has been adopted to subdivide the early-warning threshold items of the apron safety risks.Thus,the study results show that the 35 apron safety risk earlywarning indicators are of principal importance for the safety supervision and management and heighten the capability of the apron managers,and reduce the operating personnel violation rate and the pilot operation errors. At the same time,the qualification examination of the operational error rate,the scientific approach to the emergency system construction and the organizational commitment level of the operating workers may all help to reduce the operation errors to the minimalist. On the other hand,the 4 safety risk early-warning levels also help to normalize the optimal operation in flight warning,moderate warning and severe warning in

关 键 词：安全管理工程 民航机场停机坪 安全风险 预警 阈值 最优分割法 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]