基于多/单点监测模式的危险化学品事故源反算方法比较分析  

Analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of the two kinds of sensors by the source inversion methods for hazardous chemical release

作　　者：陈增强 戴波[1] CHEN Zeng-qiang;DAI Bo(Information Engineering CoUege, Beijing Institute of Petrochemical Technology, Beijing 102617, China)

机构地区：[1]北京石油化工学院信息工程学院

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2018年第3期1041-1046,共6页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：北京市社会科学基金项目(16GLC062);北京市教育委员会科技计划项目(KM201710017008);大学生研究训练计划项目(2016J00071,2017J00122)

摘　　要：利用事故现场监测所获取的部分浓度数据来反求事故源的位置和强度,能够为事故影响范围的确定提供依据。但突发事故现场难以及时布设多监测点,为了灵活处置突发事故,提出了一种基于单监测点的两阶段反算模型。首先利用当前已获取的事故信息,初步反算事故源;再利用初步反算结果,根据浓度趋向性和事故伤害分区,调整监测点的位置以获取更多有效信息。其次,对当前得到的参数估计结果,预测判断是否还需要进一步的监测。仿真结果表明,基于单监测的两阶段反算模式可以实现事故源的准确反算。比较分析了基于多点和单点监测模式的危险化学品事故源反算方法,结果表明：1）多点监测能更全面地反映现场信息,而单点监测只能揭示局部信息;2）多点反算模式只需执行一次反算过程即可得到事故源结果,而单点反算模式的执行次数至少不少于未知参数的个数;3）二者反算结果精度相当,但是效率上单测点由于多次执行反算过程,计算相对耗时;4）从事故现场处置的灵活性考虑,单点模式更符合应急需求。This paper is aimed at proposing a two-step source inversion model or method based on a single sensor to analyze the advantages and disadvantages of the two kinds of sensors in hazardous chemical release. To achieve the purpose,it is critical to locate the hazard source inversely based on the partially monitored concentrations in accordance with the emergency response and determination of the suggested safety areas. However,the key problem is to turn the needed additional sensors promptly and timely to the spots of the emergency accidents. To increase the flexibility of the disposal of the observational and monitoring points to the sudden accidents,it is necessary first of all to identify the source and properly adjust its location according to the likely released source and the damage location of the accident. And,then,it is needed to timely treat the identified resource and the likely calculated and detected errors so as to work out the optimal calculation results and the objective functions respectively,by hybridizing the simple genetic algorithm and the pattern-identifying method. Furthermore,the preliminary results gained through the said method can further be used to forecast the concentrations and decide whether further observations are needed. Therefore,the proposed single sensor based model can successfully be used to identify the release source by conducting a comparative analysis of multiple sensors or single sensor based source inversion method whereas the single sensor can only reflect the local status in-situ. On the other hand,the multiple sensors based model can obtain an accurate result with the back-sequence calculation running merely for once,whilst the single sensor based model should be made to run at least no less than the number needed for the unknown parameters. What is more,since the two models are nearly equal for the effect,the single sensor based model tends to be rather time consuming. Thus,it can be seen that the single sensor method proves to be more flexible and suitable for emerge

关 键 词：安全工程 应急处置 大气扩散 时间序列 危险区域 

分 类 号：X928.5[环境科学与工程—安全科学]