环境信息关联模型及植被对PM2.5浓度的影响研究  

An environmental information association model and influence of the vegetation on PM2.5 concentration

作　　者：龚光彩[1] 江晨阳 刘日明[1] GONG Guang-cai;JIANG Chen-yang;LIU Ri-ming(College of Civil Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha 410082, China)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学土木工程学院

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2018年第3期1184-1190,共7页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51378186);国家科技支撑计划课题(2015BAJ03B00)

摘　　要：选取北京24个PM2.5监测站点2017年8月17日至21日逐小时PM2.5质量浓度数据及16个市辖区的逐小时气象数据,建立了北京各区关于PM2.5质量浓度的环境信息关联模型,并在此基础上分析了植被在PM2.5与气象因素及区域污染的关联中发挥的作用。通过分析模型脉冲响应曲线的数值可以看出,绿化率与PM2.5对相对湿度扰动的响应相关性最高（R2=0.71）,其次为风速（R2=0.54）,但绿化率与PM2.5对温度扰动的响应的相关性不高。PM2.5对风速扰动的响应最为迅速。绿化率越高的市辖区,PM2.5对3种气象要素的响应越剧烈且越容易出现波动,PM2.5对气象要素总扰动的响应的滞后期与绿化率有较强的相关性（R2=0.62）。对各区域PM2.5质量浓度进行逐步回归分析,结果表明高植被覆盖的地区更不易受到其他区域污染物的影响。This paper intends to take Beijing and its surrounding districts as a case study sample to establish an environmental information association model under the influence of PM2.5,which is vulnerable to the integrated effects of the multiple factors so as to identify and determine the strength of the vegetation in confrontation with PM2.5 deposit in the authentic municipality environment. For this purpose,by using vector auto regression（ VAR）model,this paper has done an analysis of the responses of PM2.5 mass concentration in different districts in Beijing to the fluctuation of the local temperature,the relative humidity and the wind speed. In doing so,we have also analyzed the effects of the air pollution in the districts involved on PM2.5 mass concentration with the stepwise regression method by focusing the research orientation on the influence of the secondary effect of the vegetation on PM2.5 mass concentration. Furthermore,we have conducted a numerical analysis of the correlation between the greening rate and response of PM2.5 mass concentration to the fluctuation of the meteorological factors from the fluctuation response. The top correlation rate can be gained from the response of greening rate and PM2.5 mass concentration to the fluctuation change of the relative humidity（ R2= 0. 71）,whereas the second one turns to be the response of PM2.5 mass concentration to the fluctuation of the wind speed（ R2= 0. 54）. Actually,little correlation has been found of the response of PM2.5 mass concentration to the fluctuation of the actual temperature. On the other hand,the response of PM2.5 mass concentration to the fluctuation of the wind speed can be found the soonest in all the meteorological factors. Of all the 16 districts in Beijing,it can be found that,the higher the greening rate is,the more serious fluctuation has been shown in the response of PM2.5 mass concentration to that of the meteorological factors. An obvious correlation between the total response of PM2.5 mass concentration rate to the fluct

关 键 词：环境学 环境信息关联模型 PM2.5 植被 

分 类 号：X513[环境科学与工程—环境工程]