中国不同年龄组别的城镇劳动者产出效率研究——兼谈对合理延迟退休年龄的启示  

Research on Urban Labor Productivity of Different Age Groups in China

作　　者：刘万 Liu Wan(Southwest University of Political Science ＆ La)

机构地区：[1]西南政法大学经济学院劳动经济研究中心

出　　处：《经济评论》2018年第4期146-160,共15页Economic Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"渐进式延迟退休年龄政策研究"(项目编号:14BRK006)的资助

摘　　要：本文利用2000年和2010年两截面宏观数据分次估计了中国城镇劳动者15-59岁分年龄组的产出弹性,所获得的"产出效率-年龄"特征曲线呈倒U型。总样本显示,2000年产出效率最高年龄组为45-49岁,尽管曲线右端下沉,但显示高龄组依然有较高效率;2010年产出效率最高年龄组为30-34岁,曲线右端进一步"下沉",反映高龄组的相对效率有所下降。东部地区最有效率者越来越集中于年轻组,中西部地区最有效率群组的年龄有所提高。鉴于工资可在一定程度上衡量效率,根据CGSS(2002-2012)各年份数据所刻画的"工资-年龄"特征曲线变化,恰好反映十年间高龄组相对工资水平在下降,这应能说明上述总样本结论的可信。未来制定延迟退休年龄政策时,可考虑我国经济结构转型中临近退休的劳动者产出效率的持续变化,尽量使延迟节奏与他们的产出效率改善状况相一致。This paper investigates the output elasticity of labors at different ages from 15 to 59 years old based on the macro data of two sections in 2000 and 2010 respectively. In 2010 ,the right end of curve that reflects the productivity efficiency of labors at higher ages moves downward heavily compared to the year of 2000, especially in the east of china, however, it does move downward moderately in the mid-west of China. Owing to that wage may generally be the proxy for productivity of labor, this paper also investigates the change of wage-age profile curve over this period by analyzing the micro data provided by CGSS. The research shows that these two curves change synchronously to some extent. These changes are probably caused by changing demand of human resources from the rapid development of social economy, with a result that the young labors is increasingly becoming the most efficient ones in China recently and is in sharp contrast to other countries who are delaying the legal retirement age. In order to form the rational retirement policy, we should consider the unique national conditions and the continuous change of productivity-age profile curve caused by the shift of economic development pattern.

关 键 词：分年龄组产出效率 分年龄组工资 延迟退休节奏 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F249.2