中国建筑业隐含碳排放估算及来源解析  

Analysis on the Growth and Source of Embodied Carbon Emission of China's Construction Industry

作　　者：冯祥玉 白宏涛[1] 徐鹤[1] Feng Xiangyu;Bai Hongtao;Xu He(College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nankai University, Tianjin 300350, Chin)

机构地区：[1]南开大学环境科学与工程学院,天津300350

出　　处：《未来与发展》2018年第7期42-50,共9页Future and Development

摘　　要：建筑业担负着基础设施建设的重任,该行业的碳排放与城镇化进程密不可分。近年来,随着人口城镇化率的提高,我国建筑业呈膨胀式发展趋势,由其供应链行业引起的高碳排放问题已不容忽视。本研究定量分析了我国城镇化进程与建筑业规模扩张之间的相关关系;运用投入产出法与假设抽取法,对我国2012年由建筑业消费而引起的供应链生命周期隐含碳排放进行了定量解析;在此基础上构建了3种城镇化情景,预测了建筑业发展对经济系统中其他行业隐含碳排放的拉动力。结果表明,依据目前的城镇化发展模式,建筑业将呈指数式增长,同时引起电力、冶金、石油等行业的碳排放急剧增加。同时控制人均建筑消费与碳排放强度能够最有效的减缓中国碳排放总量的增速,有助于实现2030年碳排放达峰的承诺以及城镇化的可持续发展。The carbon emission of construction is closely linked with the urbanization process because of its importance role in infrastructure construction. The high embodied carbon emission in construction industry should be paid more attentions. The relationship between urbanization expansion and construction industry development was analyzed in this paper. The embodied carbon emission of construction industry in 2012 was estimated by the input-output method and the hypothetical extraction method from the angle of life cycle account. Three scenarios related to urbanization development were built to predict the industrial carbon emission which was caused by the development of construction driven by urbanization. According to the current development model of urbanization, the scale of construction industry would grow exponentially and cause a sharp increase of direct carbon emission in the industries of electricity, metallurgy, petroleum, etc. The control of building consumption per capita and carbon emission intensity could reduce the growth of the total carbon emissions, which would help China to achieve the peak target of carbon emissions in 2030 and the sustainable development of urbanization.

关 键 词：建筑业 隐含碳排放 城镇化 

分 类 号：X324[环境科学与工程—环境工程]