中国工业二氧化碳影子价格的稳健估计与减排政策  

Robust Estimation and Application of Shadow Price of CO_2: Evidence from China

作　　者：蒋伟杰[1] 张少华 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学金禾经济研究中心 [2]广州大学经济与统计学院

出　　处：《管理世界》2018年第7期32-49,共18页Journal of Management World

基　　金：国家自然科学基金常规面上项目"中国的‘中部迷失’问题:典型事实;形成机理及宏观后果"(71673253);国家留学基金资助

摘　　要：二氧化碳影子价格的稳健估计是评估边际减排成本、设定环境税框架以及评价碳排放权交易体系有效程度的基础性工作。本文在采用自体抽样方法(bootstrap method)的基础上,通过构建二氧化碳影子价格的稳健估计模型,测算了中国36个工业行业1998～2011年的二氧化碳影子价格。研究结果表明:(1)在参数线性规划模型下,忽视随机因素对生产前沿的影响,会低估二氧化碳影子价格。稳健估计得到中国工业行业二氧化碳影子价格平均值为5480元/吨,远低于现有研究估计结果。(2)二氧化碳影子价格在不同行业间存在较大差异并呈扩大趋势,表明行业间存在巨大的碳排放权交易空间,但是36个行业中有越来越多的行业已经向"清洁型"生产技术转变。(3)二氧化碳边际减排成本与碳排放强度之间具有显著的"倒U形"关系,行业碳排放强度的临界值为10.37吨/万元。行业的碳排放强度控制在临界值以下时,可以实现有效减排和生产技术清洁化。(4)我国未来二氧化碳减排政策应采取数量机制和价格机制相结合的策略,价格机制控制碳排放强度较高的行业,数量机制实现行业间边际减排成本的趋同。The robust estimation of the shadow price of CO_2 is fundamental for the evaluation of marginal abatement cost of CO_2, the effectiveness of CO_2 emission permits trading system and the setup of CO_2 tax framework. By proposing a robust estimation framework, we estimate the shadow price of 36 Chinese industrial sectors' CO_2 from 1998 to 2011, and the results show that:(1)The traditional parametric programming model neglects the stochastic effect on production frontier, which results in a downward bias in the estimation of the shadow price of CO_2. Under the robust model, we find that the shadow price is 5480 Yuan/ton on average;(2)The shadow price of CO_2 between industrial sectors is large and exhibits a divergence tendency, which implies a great trading potential among sectors while more and more industries convert to a cleaner production technology;(3)The estimation of MACC shows that, there is a significant inverse U-shape relationship between MAC and carbon intensity, with a critical value of the industry's carbon emission intensity being 1.037 ton per thousand Yuan. When the sector's carbon intensity is below the critical value, it is possible to achieve effective emission reduction and make the production cleaner;(4)China's future carbon abatement policy should adopt a combination of quantitative mechanism and price mechanism. We should use price mechanism to control higher level carbon emission industries, while usequantitative mechanisms to achieve inter-industry convergence of marginal abatement costs.

关 键 词：影子价格 稳健估计 自体抽样 边际减排成本 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F424[经济管理—产业经济]