香港地区雷电风速联合分布  

Joint Probability Distribution of Lightning & Wind Speed in Hong Kong

作　　者：苏盛[1] 陈浩[1] 陈晓国 夏云峰[3] 陈海焱[4] 吴怡敏 傅闯 SU Sheng;CHEN Hao;CHEN Xiaoguo;XIA Yunfeng;CHEN Haiyan;WU Yimin;FU Chuang(Hunan Province Innovation Center of Renewable Energy ＆ Smart Grids （Changsha University of Science and Technology） Changsha 410004, Hunan Province, China;Electric Power Research Institute, China Southern Power Grid Co., Ltd., Guangzhou 510080, Guangdong Province, China;Dongguan Power Supply Bureau of Guangdong Power Grid Corporation, Dongguan 523000, Guangdong Province, China;Electric Power Planning ＆ Engineering Institute, Xicheng District, Beijing 100120, China;Southwest Electric Power Design Institute Co., Ltd. of China Power Engineering Consulting Group, Chengdu 610021, Sichuan Province, China)

机构地区：[1]清洁能源与智能电网湖南省协同创新中心(长沙理工大学),湖南省长沙市410004 [2]南方电网科学研究院有限责任公司,广东省广州市510080 [3]广东电网公司东莞供电局,广东省东莞市523000 [4]电力规划设计总院,北京市西城区100120 [5]中国电力工程顾问集团西南电力设计院有限公司,四川省成都市610021

出　　处：《电网技术》2018年第7期2346-2352,共7页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51777015,51507014);湖南省教育厅科学研究项目(15A005)~~

摘　　要：雷电数据的统计分布是指导输电线路防雷设计的重要基础。输电线路设计规程中杆塔雷电过电压下风偏设计为经验参数,缺乏对雷电风速联合分布的深入研究。利用香港地区气象数据,研究雷电风速联合分布。分析表明雷电在时域上呈高度不均匀分布,日地闪数量服从Burr分布,而雷电与风速服从Gumbel-Copula联合分布。经验分布和理论分布中,日地闪次数超1000次且风速接近和超设计风速雷暴日的地闪数占比均在20%左右。结合气象学背景的分析表明,飑线等强对流天气下并发的雷暴大风是造成强雷暴时超设计风速概率畸高的根本原因。Probability distribution of lightning data plays a key role in lightning protection of transmission lines. The design of wind deviation under lightning overvoltage of transmission tower is an empirical parameter in transmission line design code. Meteorological data of Hong Kong are investigated to analyze joint probability distribution of lightning and wind. It is uncovered that daily cloud to ground（CG） flashes follows Burr distribution, which is highly skewed toward a few days with notable lightning. The lightning and wind follows a Gumbel-Copula joint distribution. According to empirical and theoretical distribution, there are about 20% of CG flashes occur in the days with wind around or over 15 m/s and CG flashes over 1000. In-depth investigation suggests that the severe convection with squall line contribute much to the likelihood of the days with high wind and lightning storms.

关 键 词：雷电 风速 联合分布 雷电过电压 风偏闪络 

分 类 号：TM75[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]