气象因素对甘肃阿拉善黄鼠疫源地动物鼠疫的影响  

Effects of meteorological factors on prevalence of animal plague in the natural plague foci of Spermophilus alaschanicus of Gansu Province

作　　者：王鼎盛[1] 格鹏飞[1] 徐大琴[1] 席进孝[1] 吴斌[1] 王世明[1] 盖永志[1] Wang Dingsheng;Ge Pengfei;Xu Daqin;Xi Jinxiao;Wu Bin;Wang Shiming;Gai Yongzhi(The Plague Prevention Department of Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lanzhou 730020, Chin)

机构地区：[1]甘肃省疾病预防控制中心鼠疫防制科,兰州730020

出　　处：《中华地方病学杂志》2018年第7期526-531,共6页Chinese Journal of Endemiology

基　　金：甘肃省卫生行业科研计划管理项目（GSGL2010-30、GSGL2014-72）

摘　　要：目的探讨甘宁黄土高原阿拉善黄鼠（以下简称黄鼠）鼠疫自然疫源地气象因素变化对宿主数量和动物鼠疫流行的影响。方法收集1962—2014年甘肃黄鼠疫源地黄鼠血清阳性率资料。当年及领先1（相对于当年作为参照的前1个年份）、2、3年平均降雨量，平均温度、平均相对湿度等气象因素。采用SAS9．3软件进行气象因素对黄鼠数量和动物鼠疫发生影响的相关分析和回归分析；采用广义相加模型（GAM）定量研究气象因素对黄鼠数量的影响程度；采用logistic回归分析研究气象因素对黄鼠鼠疫流行的影响。结果黄鼠年份血清阳性率与当年及领先1年平均降雨量、当年平均相对湿度呈正相关（r=0．279、0．341、0．654，P均〈0．05），与当年及领先1、2、3年平均温度呈负相关（r=-0．360、-0．339、-0．273、-0．323，P均〈0．05）。GAM参数模型部分估计结果表明，领先2、3年平均降雨量与黄鼠密度线性关系有统计学意义（t=2．88、2．42，P均〈0．05）；GAM非参数模型部分估计结果表明，领先2、3年平均降雨量对黄鼠密度影响有统计学意义（x2=31．580、13．428，P均〈0．05），这种影响是非线性的。多因素logistic回归分析结果表明，领先1年平均降雨量[比值比（OR）=2．475，95％可信区间（CI）：1．175-5．213]是黄鼠疫源地动物鼠疫流行的危险因子。结论降雨量是鼠疫流行的危险因子，其对宿主数量和动物鼠疫流行的影响存在滞后效应。降水量（但不是持续的降雨量）达到一定量时，可为鼠疫菌的传播提供有利的条件。Objective To explore the effects of meteorological factors on population densities of the host and the prevalence of animal plague in the natural plague foci of Spermophilus alaschanicus. Methods The surveillance data of seroprevalence rate in natural plague foci of Spermophilus alaschanicus of Gansu Province in current year, one previous year （relative to current year as a reference）, as well as two and three previous years＂ meteorological data such as average annual rainfall, temperature, relative humidity were collected from 1962 to 2014. SAS 9.3 software was used for correlation and regression analysis of the influencing meteorological factors on the density of Spermophilus alaschanicus and prevalence of animal plague; generalized additive model （GAM） was used for quantitative study of meteorological factors on density of Spermophilus aloschanicus; logistic regression analysis was used to study the effect of meteorological factors on prevalence of Spermophilus alaschanicus plague. Results Serum positive rate of Spermophilus alaschanicus was positively correlated with average annual rainfall of current and previous one year, and with relative humidity of current year （r = 0.279, 0.341, 0.654, P 〈 0.05）; serum positive rate was negatively correlated with average annual temperature of current and preceding first, second and third years （r = - 0.360, - 0.339, - 0.273, - 0.323, P 〈 0.05）. The average annual rainfall of preceding second and third years was significantly associated with the densities of Spermophilus alaschanicus by GAM parameter estimation （t = 2.88, 2.42, P 〈 0.05）. The average annual rainfall of preceding second and third years was significantly associated with the densities of Spermophilus alaschanicus by GAM nonparameter estimation （X2 = 31.580, 13.428, P 〈 0.05）, but the effect was nonlinear. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that average annual rainfall of preceding first year [odds ratio （OR） = 2.475, 95% confidence interval （C/）： 1.

关 键 词：鼠疫(耶尔森氏)杆菌 气象因素 相关性分析 

分 类 号：R516.8[医药卫生—内科学] R181.3[医药卫生—临床医学]