政治偏好、经济利益与威慑感知--蔡英文执政时期台湾民众“九二共识”立场的影响因素分析  

Political Preference,Economic Interests and Deterrence Perception——An Analysis of the Influencing Factors of Taiwan Public Position on the“1992 Consensus” under the Tsai Ying-wen Administration

作　　者：郑振清[1,2] 段哲哲 杨子申 Zheng Zhenqing;Duan Zhezhe;Yang Zishen

机构地区：[1]清华大学公共管理学院,北京100084 [2]清华大学台湾研究院,北京100084 [3]政治大学社会科学院,中国台湾台北11605 [4]政治大学公共行政系,中国台湾台北11605

出　　处：《台湾研究集刊》2018年第3期10-19,共10页Taiwan Research Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“台湾社会分化与社会运动影响政党政治演变的实证研究”(15AZZ015)

摘　　要："九二共识"是两岸政治互信的基石,但蔡英文上台执政至今一直以"台湾民意"为借口拒绝承认"九二共识",使两岸关系陷入了政治僵局。本文利用2005—2017年多年度台湾民意调查数据开展定量实证研究,发现在蔡英文执政时期,支持"九二共识"是台湾社会的主流民意,同时多种因素对台湾民众的"九二共识"认知产生影响。接着对2016年底的调查数据进行二元胜算对数回归分析发现:在政治偏好方面,倾向统一与维持现状的民众比倾向"独立"者更支持"九二共识",泛蓝支持者和中间民众比泛绿支持者更支持"九二共识";而且,两岸经贸交流利益对台湾民众的"九二共识"支持态度的影响达到统计显著水平;军事威慑则对台湾民众的"九二共识"认知没有积极影响,显示军事威慑和"九二共识"立场分属两个不同层面。本研究利用定量数据分析探究了当前台湾各种社会分歧线如何影响两岸议题的发展,从实证的角度丰富了对两岸关系和平发展的微观社会动力的认识。The＂1992 Consensus＂was the cornerstone of the cross-Strait political mutual trust. However,Tsai Yingwen has so far refused to recognize the ＂1992 Consensus＂under the pretext of＂public opinion in Taiwan＂,which has led to a political deadlock in the cross-Strait relations. This paper makes a quantitative empirical study by using the data of the Taiwan public opinion survey in 2005-2017. The findings show that the support of the＂1992 Consensus＂is the mainstream public opinion in Taiwan society during the Tsai Ying-wen administration but the public cognition of the Consensus has been affected by a variety of factors. The paper also makes a binary logarithmic regression analysis of the survey data at the end of 2016 and finds that,in terms of political preferences,people inclined towards unification and maintaining the status quo support the Consensus even more than those leaning towards independence while the pan-blue supporters and the middle people voters are even more supportive of the Consensus than the pan-green supporters. Moreover,the cross-Strait economic and trade exchanges have made a statistically significant impact on the public support attitude of the Consensus whereas the military deterrence has not had any positive effect,which indicates that the military deterrence and the stand of＂1992 Consensus＂cannot be regarded as being in the same category. This study,through quantitative data analysis,explores how various social differences in Taiwan affect the development of cross-Strait issues and enrich our understanding of the micro-social dynamics for the peaceful development of the cross-Taiwan Strait relations from an empirical point of view.

关 键 词：“九二共识” 两岸关系 政治偏好 两岸经贸 军事威慑 

分 类 号：D618[政治法律—政治学]