基于灰色聚类法的水利枢纽灌区PPP项目风险评价研究  

Study on Risk Evaluation of PPP Project in Irrigation District of Water Conservancy Project Based on Gray Clustering Method

作　　者：赖致轩 李昭 邹坦[1] LAI Zhi-xuan;LI Zhao;ZOU Tan(School of Economics and Management,Jiangxi University of Science and Technology,Ganzhou 341000,China)

机构地区：[1]江西理工大学经济管理学院,江西赣州341000

出　　处：《工程管理学报》2018年第3期75-80,共6页Journal of Engineering Management

摘　　要：基于水利枢纽灌区PPP项目的一般特点及其特殊性,提出不同责任主体的6个风险一级指标、25个风险二级指标的风险评价体系,通过AHP法确定各级风险指标权重值,运用灰色聚类法中的三角白化权函数的评估方法,将分散的风险评价信息处理成不同灰类度的评价量,从而得出项目的综合风险等级。结合B灌区二期工程项目进行应用分析,为我国水利枢纽灌区PPP项目规避风险、降低损失提供切实可行的理论指导依据。Based on the general characteristics of PPP projects in irrigation area of water conservancy and its particularity, the paper put forward a risk assessment system with 6 first-level risk indicators and 25 second-level risk indexes, in which the weight of each risk index is determined by AHP method. Using the triangle whiten function of grey clustering method in the risk assessment, scattered risk evaluation information are transformed into different grey degree, thus the comprehensive risk level of the project can be obtained. By applying this method＇ into a second stage project of B Irrigation District, the findings of this study will provide a practical and theoretical guidance for avoiding risks and reducing losses in PPP projects of irrigation areas of water conservancy hubs in China.

关 键 词：水利枢纽灌区 灰色聚类 PPP项目 风险评价 

分 类 号：TV511[水利工程—水利水电工程]