东北三省农业旱灾风险评估研究  

Assessment on the risk of agricultural drought disaster in the three provinces of Northeast China

作　　者：杨晓静[1,2,3,4] 徐宗学 左德鹏[1,2] 蔡思扬 YANG Xiaojing;XU Zongxue;ZUO Depeng;CAI Siyang(College of Water Sciences,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology,Beijing 100875,China;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Research Center on Flood and Drought Disaster Reduction,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京100875 [2]城市水循环与海绵城市技术北京市重点实验室,北京100875 [3]中国水利水电科学研究院防洪抗旱减灾研究所,北京100038 [4]水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心,北京100038

出　　处：《地理学报》2018年第7期1324-1337,共14页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1502404);水利部公益性行业科研专项项目(201401036);中国水科院基本科研业务费项目(JZ0145B752017;JZ0145B582017)~~

摘　　要：气候变化背景下,干旱对农业生产造成的损失已不容忽视。明晰粮食主产区面临的旱灾风险特征有利于保障中国粮食生产安全。东北三省是中国最重要的粮食主产区之一,明晰该地区的农业旱灾特征对农业生产具有十分重要的作用。基于自然灾害系统理论针对东北三省构建了农业旱灾风险评估模型,并在县市尺度对不同等级农业旱灾风险进行了分区。研究中分别从省份尺度和县市尺度对农业旱灾危险性、暴露性、脆弱性、抗旱能力及农业旱灾综合风险进行评估。结果表明:省份尺度上,农业旱灾综合风险由高到低分别为黑龙江省、吉林省及辽宁省。其中危险性年际间差异明显,暴露性则相对稳定。2010-2015年间脆弱性呈增加趋势,三省抗旱能力均随年际变化而波动。空间范围上,东北三省农业旱灾风险由南向北递增。农业旱灾综合风险等级上,中级及其以上级别县市占对应省份的比例由高到低分别为黑龙江省(75.81%)、吉林省(41.30%)与辽宁省(0%)。值得注意的是,农业旱灾综合等级最高的地区主要集中在三江平原及松嫩平原区。Due to the increasing effects of climate change, drought induced economic losses of agricultural production should no longer be ignored. It has become vital to better understand the causes of agricultural drought. This will help to ensure the security of agricultural production, especially in the major grain production regions of China. Few previous studies have focused on multi-year agricultural drought risk in the grain production of Northeast China. The three provinces are crucial to grain production in China. Increased understanding of drought in this agricultural region would benefit the management of agricultural production.This study focuses on the investigation of possible risks that contribute to agricultural drought in the region, based on the natural disaster system theory. A risk assessment model is developed, based on the region, to investigate the spatiotemporal features of agricultural drought and regionalize the potential risks at county and city levels. The contributing factors for agricultural drought potential risk are exposure, vulnerability, resistance capacity, and agricultural drought composite risk, and these factors have been explored separately. Results indicated two important ideas. First, at the province level, the risk of agricultural drought was the highest for Heilongjiang and the lowest for Liaoning, with Jilin falling in between. The disaster risk changed during the year when the fluctuation of exposure was comparatively stable. Drought vulnerability was gradually rising while agricultural drought resistance capacity remained stable from 2010 to 2014. Second, looking at the entire region, the risk of agricultural drought gradually increased from south to north. The severity level, which is the percentage of county and municipal agricultural drought composite risk within each province, was Heilongjiang（75.81%）, Jilin（41.30%） and Liaoning（0%）. The highest agricultural drought risks were concentrated in the Sanjiang Plain and Songnen Plain.

关 键 词：危险性 暴露性 脆弱性 抗旱能力 区划 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]