1951—2016年临沂市降水变化特征分析  

Analysis on Precipitation Change Characteristics in Linyi City from 1951 to 2016

作　　者：丁文超 赵欣[1] 王凯 许智慧 张莹[1] 吴迪[1] 王昌稳[1] DING Wen-chao;ZHAO Xin;WANG Kai;XU Zhi-hui;ZHANG Ying;WU Di;WANG Chang-wen(College of Resources and Environment,Linyi University,Linyi Shandong 276000;Linyi Meteorological Bureau)

机构地区：[1]临沂大学资源环境学院,山东临沂276000 [2]临沂市气象局

出　　处：《现代农业科技》2018年第10期205-206,211,共3页Modern Agricultural Science and Technology

基　　金：临沂大学2017年校级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(201710452220);临沂大学2018年校级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(201810452015)

摘　　要：利用1951—2016年临沂市年均降水量数据,采用数理统计和Morlet小波分析方法,研究了临沂市降水变化多时间尺度的周期性变化规律,并对临沂市未来降水量变化趋势进行了预测。结果表明,1951—2016年临沂市年均降水量最低值为529.5 mm,最高值为1 415.6 mm,平均值为864.3 mm,中位数为846.5 mm,符合正态分布;临沂市年均降水量在15年、28年、40年左右周期震荡剧烈,有明显的规律;降水偏少的趋势将结束,未来几年降水量将逐渐偏多;40年时间尺度的小波系数的模方值和方差系数最大,能量最强、周期最显著,为降水量变化的第1主周期。Based on the annual average precipitation data in Linyi City from 1951 to 2016,the mathematical statistics and Morlet wavelet analysis method were used to study the periodic change pattern of precipitation with multiple time scales,and forecast the precipitation trend in the future of Linyi City.The results of average annual precipitation from 1951 to 2016 in Linyi City was as follows ：the lowest value was 529.5 mm,the maximum value was 1 415.6 mm,the average value was 864.3 mm,the median value was 846.5 mm,which conformed to the normal distribution. The average annual precipitation in Linyi City vibrated in the period of 15 years,28 years,40 years,having obvious regularity. The trend of less precipitation will be end and there will be more precipitation in the next few years. Modulus of wavelet coefficient and variance coefficient of 40 years scale were maximum,which had strongest energy and the most obvious cycle,and became the first main precipitation period.

关 键 词：降水量 数理统计 小波分析 变化特征 山东临沂 1951—2016年 

分 类 号：S161.6[农业科学—农业气象学]