基于CMIP5耦合气候模式的1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间研究  

CMIP5-based threshold-crossing times of 1.5℃ and 2℃ global warming above pre-industrial levels

作　　者：周梦子 周广胜[1,2] 吕晓敏 周莉[1] 汲玉河[1] ZHOU Meng-Zi;ZHOU Guang-Sheng;LYU Xiao-Min;ZHOU Li;JI Yu-He(Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast Meteorological Disaster Warning and Assessment,Nanjing University of Information Science ＆ Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预警协同创新中心,南京210044

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2018年第3期221-227,共7页Climate Change Research

基　　金：中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务费专项基金(2016Y007);国家自然科学基金重点项目(41330531);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201711)

摘　　要：利用CMIP5耦合气候模式的模拟结果,分析了不同排放情景下1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现的时间。多模式集合平均结果表明:RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5排放情景下,全球地表温度将分别在2029年、2028年和2025年达到1.5℃升温阈值;RCP2.6情景下直至21世纪末期都未达到2℃升温阈值,RCP4.5和RCP8.5排放情景下达到2℃升温阈值的时间分别为2048年和2040年。伴随着排放情景的升高,完成从1.5℃升温阈值到2℃升温阈值所需要的时间缩短。区域尺度上,达到同一升温阈值的时间主要表现为陆地比海洋早,且陆地对排放情景差异的敏感性相对较差,而海洋达到升温阈值的时间则随着排放情景的升高而明显提前。中国达到相应升温阈值的时间要早于全球,且以东北和西北地区出现的时间最早。Based on the outputs of CMIP5 models,1.5℃ and 2℃ global warming threshold-crossing time above pre-industrial levels are evaluated under different Representative Concentration Pathways（RCPs）scenarios.The results of multi-model ensemble showed that relative to the pre-industrial levels,the global warming would exceed 1.5℃ threshold in 2029,2028 and 2025 in the RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios,respectively.Under RCP2.6 scenario,the global warming would be kept below 2℃ until the end of the 21st century while the 2℃ global warming would occur around 2048 and 2040 in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.The time required from 1.5℃ to 2℃ global warming threshold is cut down in RCP8.5 compared with RCP4.5.On the regional scales,the threshold-crossing times over the land are earlier than those over the ocean and show little difference among scenarios whereas the time can be advanced in stronger emission for the ocean.Regarding global warming,the times crossing 1.5℃and 2℃ warming threshold in China are both earlier,especially for Northeast China and Northwest China.

关 键 词：CMIP5耦合气候模式 1.5℃升温 2℃升温 出现时间 区域分异 

分 类 号：P423[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]