基于CLUE-S模型的干旱区典型绿洲城市土地利用变化时空动态模拟研究——以新疆奎屯河流域为例  

Spatio-temporal Dynamic Simulation of Land Use Change of Typical Oasis Cities in Arid Areas Based on CLUE-S Model:A Case Study of Kuitun River Basin in Xinjiang

作　　者：彭树宏[1,2] 钱静 陈劲松[1] 陈曦[3] 马英莲[4] PENG Shu-hong;QIAN Jing;CHEN Jin-song;CHEN Xi;MA Ying-lian(Shenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Shenzhen 518055;School of Information Science and Technology,Huizhou University,Huizhou 516007;Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011;Institute of Surveying and Mapping of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Urumqi 830000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院深圳先进技术研究院,广东深圳518055 [2]惠州学院信息科学与技术学院,广东惠州516007 [3]中国科学院中亚生态与环境研究中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 [4]新疆维吾尔自治区测绘科学研究院,新疆乌鲁木齐830000

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2018年第3期61-67,共7页Geography and Geo-Information Science

基　　金：国家科技重大专项(2017YFB0504200);深圳国际合作研究项目(GJHZ20160229194322570);广东省科技计划项目(2017A050501027);中科院西部之光项目(2016-QNXZ-A-5)

摘　　要：在水资源条件约束下,干旱区绿洲城市有其独特的城市空间形态,水资源分布直接影响着城市的选址、规模及空间扩展等。该文利用新疆奎屯河流域主要城镇1999-2011年的土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)、自然资源及社会经济数据,建立了现势延续、协调发展、节水发展和经济优先4种情景驱动的CLUE-S模型,模拟奎屯河流域2011-2030年的土地空间格局变化,分析水资源约束下干旱区土地利用空间发展过程。结果表明,所有情景中各土地利用类型都存在转换,其中:草地变化最大,平均占比38.16%;耕地次之,为23.63%;林地、未利用地和盐碱地的平均占比依次为11.63%、11.40%和9.47%。从土地利用变化需求趋势和情景模拟结果可知,节水型发展是研究区未来空间发展的最优模式。Because of the constraint of water resources,the typical oasis cites in arid area have exhibited unique urban spatial structure.The distribution of water resources also affects the city location,the city scale and the urban expansion.In this paper,using land use/cover change （LUCC）,natural resources and social economic data during 1999-2011,four scenario-driven CLUE-S models,namely,current continuation（scenario 1）,coordinated development（scenario 2）,water-saving development（scenario 3） and economic priorities（scenario 4）,were established to simulate the change of land spatial pattern of Kuitun River Basin in Xinjiang from 2011 to 2030,and to analyze land use change process in arid area under the restriction of water resource.It is found that there is reciprocal transformation between different land use types in all four scenarios,in which,grassland shows the biggest area change,accounting for 38.16% in average,and 23.63% for cultivated land.The forest land,unused land and saline-alkali land from high to low are 11.63%,11.40% and 9.47%,respectively.From the trend of the land use change demand and the results of the scenario simulation,the water-saving development is the best model for the future urban spatial expansion of the study area.

关 键 词：干旱区 土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC) CLUE-S模型 城市空间扩展 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]