经济不确定性和风险规避对跨国资本流动的影响——基于韩国的实证研究  

The Impact of Economic Uncertainty and Risk Aversion on the Transnational Capital Flow:Based on an Empirical Study in South Korea

作　　者：朴基石[1] 李天宇 Piao Jishi;Li Tianyu

机构地区：[1]延边大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《南开学报（哲学社会科学版）》2018年第4期22-32,共11页Nankai Journal:Philosophy,Literature and Social Science Edition

摘　　要：2008年全球金融危机之后,学术界和政策当局对跨国资本流动的态度从自由开放转向了适度管制。深刻理解资本流动的驱动因素,对引导和适度调整资本流动具有重要意义。通过对韩国的实证分析发现,不确定性与投资者风险规避对短期和长期资本流动都会产生重要影响,但对短期资本的影响更大;同时,对资本流动的影响特征均存在较大差异,有时甚至相反。因此,在管理跨国资本流动时不仅要采用相应的宏观审慎政策,还应充分关注不确定性和投资者风险态度的变化,认真、慎重地区别二者的影响,并对这些不可观测的经济因素进行引导和调整。After the 2008 global financial crisis, the attitudes of scholars and policymakers on transnational capital flows have shifted from free flow to moderate regulation. It is important to understand the capital driving-factors to lead and regulate efficiently the capital flow. By analyzing the effects of economic uncertainty and risk aversion on short-term and long-term capital flows in South Korea, we found that uncertainty and risk aversion have an important impact on both the long-term and the short-term capital flows, especially on the short-term capital flows. Moreover, the impacts of uncertainty and risk aversion on capital flows are different, sometimes even opposite. Therefore, when the transnational capital is being regulated, not only relevant macro-prudential policies should be adopted, but also sufficient attention should be paid to the changes of the attitudes toward economic uncertainty and risk-aversion. Finally, it is also important to distinguish the difference between the effects of economic uncertainty and risk aversion to lead and adjust these unpredictable economic factors.

关 键 词：资本流动 经济不确定性 风险规避 韩国 

分 类 号：F131.26[经济管理—世界经济] F831.6