城市报媒情绪、公众关注与房地产市场——基于35个大中城市报媒房地产新闻的面板分析  

City Newspaper Media Sentiment,Public Attention and the Real Estate Market: A Panel Data Analysis of Real Estate News in the Newspapers of 35 Large and Medium-Sized Cities

作　　者：宋丹丹 张东[1] SONG Dan-dan;ZHANG Dong(School of Finance,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430064,Chin)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学金融学院,湖北武汉430064

出　　处：《海南大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2018年第4期118-127,共10页Journal of Hainan University （Humanities & Social Sciences）

摘　　要：搜集整理了2008年1月到2017年8月35个大中城市机关报和都市报关于房地产市场的143 161篇报道,用基于Linear SVC的机器学习方法对新闻标题进行文本分析,得到机关报和都市报的房地产市场关注度和房地产市场情绪变量,进而用工具变量的两阶段回归法(IV-2SLS)研究城市报媒房地产市场关注度和情绪变量对房地产市场的影响,结果发现:城市报媒的媒体情绪力量对比与国家宏观调控政策基调大致吻合;城市报媒与公众二者对楼市的关注度显著正相关;报媒传递的看多情绪对房价和销售面积作用显著,且作用方向一负一正;机关报对楼市的作用要大于都市报。基于此提出应充分发挥城市报媒在房地产市场调控中的预期管理作用、机关报和都市报应根据各自特点在房地产市场周期不同阶段把握好发布信号的情绪倾向和发布时机等政策建议。With 143161 reports on the real estate market collected from 35 large and medium-sized cities in China from January 2008 to August 2017,the paper carries out a textual analysis of news headlines with the machine learning method based on Linear SVC. With the degrees of attention and the variables of sentiment displayed in the reports of municipal and city newspapers on the real estate market,it further adopts the method of Two-Stage Least Squares as Instrumental Variables（ IV-2 SLS） to study their impact on the real estate market. It is indicated that the contrast of media sentiment power among these city newspapers is generally consistent with the keynote of China＇s macroeconomic regulation and control. There is a significant positive correlation between the attention of city newspapers and the public to the housing market. And bullish sentiment that city newspapers convey has the significant influence on the housing prices negatively and sales area positively. The effect that the municipal newspapers have on the housing market is bigger than that urban newspapers have. Accordingly,city newspaper media are suggested to play their role in expectation management of real estate market regulation and control. The municipal and urban newspapers are also suggested to pay due attention to the sentiment tendency of signal releasing and the delivering timing in the different periods of real estate market in accordance with their own features.

关 键 词：房地产市场 机器学习 媒体情绪 工具变量2SLS 房价 

分 类 号：F293.35[经济管理—国民经济]