洪峰流量与水位不同遭遇条件下的防洪设计  

Flood prevention design under different encounter conditions of flood peak flow and water level

作　　者：陈子燊[1] 曹深西 CHEN Zhishen;CAO Shenxi(School of Geography and Planning,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China;Guangdong Center for Marine Development Research,Guangzhou 510220,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学水资源与环境系,广东广州510275 [2]广东省海洋发展规划研究中心,广东广州510220

出　　处：《中山大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第4期92-98,共7页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41371498)

摘　　要：采用Archimedean Gumbel-Hougaard copula函数和Kendall分布函数分析洪峰流量和洪峰水位联合分布的重现水平。以西江高要水文站1951-2010年的年最大洪峰流量和相应洪峰水位为例,计算了二者联合分布下的"或"重现期、"且"重现期和Kendall重现期及其最可能的设计值。主要结论如下:(1)洪峰流量和洪峰水位的遭遇条件概率显示存在着多种防洪设计标准;(2)对比"或"联合重现期和"且"重现期,Kendall重现期更准确地反映了Q-H组合的风险率;(3)以出现最大概率原理推算的不同洪峰流量和水位遭遇概率组合的Kendall重现期设计值为多种防洪标准选择与风险管理提供了更多的参考依据。The return levels of the joint distribution of flood peak discharges and flood peak water levels were analyzed by Archimedean Gumbel-Hougaard copula and Kendall distribution function in this article. Using the annual maximum flood peak discharges and corresponding flood peak water levels between years 1951 to 2010 at Gaoyao hydrologic station in Xijiang River, the ‘OR’ return period, ‘AND’ return period and Kendall return period with the most likely design quantiles were calculated. The main conclusions of this study can be summarized as follows：① The conditional probability of flood peak flow and flood water level shows various flood control design standards.② Compared with the “OR” return periods and “AND” return periods, Kendall return periods more accurately reflect the risk rate of the combination of flood elements. ③ Based on the principle of maximum probability, the calculated design quantiles of Kendall return periods under the different combination condition of flood peak flow and water level can provide more options for flood control standard selection and risk management.

关 键 词：洪峰流量和水位遭遇概率 “或”重现期 “且”重现期 Kendall重现期 多种防洪设计标准 

分 类 号：X522[环境科学与工程—环境工程]