一类组合模型及其在GDP预测中的应用研究  

A Combination Model and Its Application in GDP Forecasting

作　　者：李贺 魏立力[1] He Li;Lili Wei(School of Mathematics and Computer Science,Ningxia University,750021,China)

机构地区：[1]宁夏大学数学计算机学院,宁夏银川750021

出　　处：《管理科学与研究（中英文版）》2016年第1期13-19,共7页Management Science and Research

摘　　要：为了提高组合预测模型的预测精度, 文章在动态三次指数平滑和混合时间序列模型的基础上,以误差全距作为优化指标,建立了一类组合预测模型,并将该组合预测模型应用于宁夏GDP 的预测.文章所建立的组合预测模型具有较高的拟合精度.In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the combination forecasting model, a combination model is established on the basisof dynamic exponential smoothing and mixing time series model by taking error range as the optimizing index. The combinationforecasting model is applied to prediction of GDP in Ningxia. And the data analysis shows that the combination forecasting modelestablished in this paper has a higher accuracy.

关 键 词：组合预测模型 动态三次指数平滑模型 混合时间序列模型 GDP 

分 类 号：O211.67[理学—概率论与数理统计]