“一带一路”倡议下人民币汇率波动与贸易差额关系分析  

Analysis on the relationship between RMB exchange rate volatility and trade balance under the “The Belt and Road” initiative

作　　者：邱冬阳 王寒 曹亚飞 QIU Dongyang;WANG Han;CAO Yafei(MBA Education Center;School of Economics and Finance,Chongqing University of Technology-,Chongqing 400054,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆理工大学MBA教育中心,重庆400054 [2]重庆理工大学经济金融学院,重庆400054

出　　处：《重庆理工大学学报（社会科学）》2018年第7期53-64,共12页Journal of Chongqing University of Technology（Social Science）

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目"基于大数据+深度学习的中国金融市场波动性及预警机制研究"(17AJY028)

摘　　要：利用2001—2014年我国与"一带一路"沿线国家之间的数据,分全样本和内部6个板块建立面板模型对人民币汇率与贸易差额进行协整实证检验。结果表明:人民币汇率升值能够正向影响我国与"一带一路"沿线国家之间的贸易差额;"一带一路"沿线国家的GDP和外商投资流入量增加导致相应的贸易差额的扩大,其中,中国与南亚板块之间汇率和贸易差额关系的实证结果与全样本一致,东南亚、西亚和中东欧与全样本有略微差异。基于此,建议在有效调整汇率、优化贸易结构、加大投资合作等方面来夯实"一带一路"倡议。Using data between China and countries along the ＂The Belt and Road＂between 2001 and2014,the whole sample and internal six plate panel model are established respectively to conduct co-integration empirical tests of RMB exchange rate and trade balance. The results show that the appreciation of RMB exchange rate can positively influence the trade balance between China and the countries along ＂The Belt and Road＂; the increase in GDP and foreign investment in the countries along ＂The Belt and Road＂has led to an increase in the corresponding trade balance. The empirical results of the exchange rate and trade balance between China and South Asia are consistent with the whole sample,but the empirical results of the exchange rate and trade balance in southeast and western Asia,central and eastern Europe are slightly different from that of the whole sample. It is suggested that China ＇s ＂The Belt and Road ＂ initiative should be strengthened through effective adjustment of exchange rate,optimization of trade structure and investment cooperation.

关 键 词：人民币汇率 贸易差额 “一带一路” 面板协整 

分 类 号：F74[经济管理—国际贸易]