影响中国碳价的能源价格因素灰关联研究  

Grey Correlation Analysis on Energy Prices and Carbon Price in China

作　　者：陆敏[1,2] 苍玉权 LU Min1,2, CANG Yuquan1(1.Institute of Statistics and Data Science, Nanjing Audit University, Nanjing 211815, China; 2.Department of economics, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China)

机构地区：[1]南京审计大学统计科学与大数据研究院,江苏南京211815 [2]南京大学经济学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《中国环境管理》2018年第4期88-92,共5页Chinese Journal of Environmental Management

基　　金：江苏省哲学社会科学基金项目"区域碳交易体系的社会福利效应研究(16GLB013)";江苏省高校哲学社会科学基金项目"碳交易机制影响经济增长么?-基于试点省份面板数据的实证分析"(2016SJB630049)

摘　　要：本文选取中国碳排放价格数据和8种能源价格指数为研究变量,运用灰色关联方法研究了中国能源价格对中国碳价的影响。研究结果发现,化石能源价格对中国碳排放价格的影响较大,特别是煤炭、成品油和基础油价格对碳价的影响最大;低污染能源中,与天然气相比,液化气价格对中国碳排放价格影响明显。研究结果指出了保持碳市场价格稳定、防范价格异常波动的重要性,并从能源价格体系和能源消费结构角度提出了政策建议。Based on grey correlation analysis, carbon emissions prices and eight energy price indexes in China were selected as the research variables to explore the impact on carbon prices. The results showed that fossil energy prices, coal, oil and base oil in particular, have a greater infiuence on Chinese carbon prices. Compared to LNG, LPG price has obvious effects on Chinese carbon prices in the low-pollution energy. The importance of keeping stability and preventing abnormal fiuctuations in carbon price was presented in this paper, policy suggestions were also put forward from energy price system and consumption structure perspective.

关 键 词：碳排放价格 能源价格 灰色关联分析 

分 类 号：F222[经济管理—国民经济] C812[社会学—统计学]