基于半参数面板数据模型的江苏省经济增长与水污染排放关系实证研究  

Using Semi-parametric Panel Data Analysis to Explore the Relationship Detween Economic Growth and Industrial COD Emissions in Jiangsu Province

作　　者：卢爱桐 简舒婷 王远[1,2,3] 朱晓东 张晨[2,3] 李立 LU Aitong1, JIAN Shuting2.3, WANG Yuan1,2,3, ZHU Xiaodong1, ZHANG Chen2,3, LI Li1(1. State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China; 2. Fujian Provincial Key Kaboratory for Subtropical Resources and Environment, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China; 3. College of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China)

机构地区：[1]污染控制与资源化国家重点实验室,南京大学环境学院,江苏南京210023 [2]福建师范大学福建省亚热带资源与环境重点实验室,福建福州350007 [3]福建师范大学地理科学学院,福建福州350007

出　　处：《中国环境管理》2018年第4期93-99,共7页Chinese Journal of Environmental Management

摘　　要：本文以江苏省为研究区域,采用1990—2013年江苏省市级面板数据,基于单位根检验和面板协整检验,运用可拓展的随机性环境影响评估模型(STIRPAT)和参数、半参数固定效应回归方法,对经济增长与工业COD排放之间的关系展开研究。研究发现,江苏省经济增长与工业COD排放之间存在倒U形曲线关系,即全省工业COD排放随经济的发展呈现先增长后降低的趋势,同时人口增长对水污染物排放影响很大,二者之间的环境库兹涅茨曲线表明了经济持续发展能够协调并能解决其与水污染排放之间的困境。本研究丰富了社会经济发展与水污染关系在市级尺度层面的实证研究,为"十三五"期间江苏省水污染治理提供了政策依据。The research concentrates on Jiangsu province and attempts to explicitly investigate the impacts of economic growth on industrial chemical oxygen demand （COD） emissions through examination on the existence of an environmental Kuznets curve between them. Within the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affiuence and Technology framework, this paper explores the income and chemical oxygen demand emission nexus in Jiangsu, using panel data together with semi-parametric panel fixed effects regression. Dataset comprises a city-level panel of Jiangsu province spanning from 1990 to 2013. Based on the research, we find an evidence in support of an inverted U-shaped curve relationship between economic growth and chemical oxygen demand emissions, which implies that the economic growth vs. chemical oxygen demand emissions dilemma can be resolved while income continues to increase. And the increase in population contributes a lot to the industrial COD emissions. These findings advance the emerging literature on the development and water pollution nexus.

关 键 词：经济增长 工业COD排放 环境库兹涅茨曲线 STIRPAT模型 半参数固定效应模型 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]