基于广义相加模型分析可吸入颗粒物对人群呼吸系统的短期健康效应  

Analysis of short-term health effects of inhalable particulates on population respiratory system based on generalized additive model

作　　者：周海泓 张杨 雍宗锋 于蕾 姚成宜 周新亚[1] ZHOU Hai-hong;ZHANG Yang;YONG Zong-feng;YU Lei;YAO Cheng-yi;ZHOU Xin-ya(Suqian Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jiangsu Suqian 223800,Chin)

机构地区：[1]宿迁市疾病预防控制中心,江苏宿迁223800

出　　处：《江苏预防医学》2018年第4期389-392,共4页Jiangsu Journal of Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的了解宿迁市PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)对人群呼吸系统的短期健康效应。方法收集宿迁市2016年空气污染数据、气象数据、医院呼吸系统疾病门诊量和居民因呼吸系统疾病死亡数据,利用R软件建立泊松分布广义相加模型,分析PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)对呼吸系统疾病每日门诊量和人群因呼吸系统疾病每日死亡数的短期影响。结果 2016年宿迁市PM_(10)浓度对呼吸系统疾病日门诊量有影响,PM_(10)浓度与滞后1天的呼吸系统疾病门诊量呈正相关,PM_(10)每上升10μg/m^3,医院呼吸系统疾病门诊量增加0.26%(95%CI:0.01%~0.51%);PM_(2.5)浓度对日门诊量,PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)浓度对人群呼吸系统疾病死亡数影响均无统计学意义(P值均>0.05)。结论 2016年宿迁市PM_(10)浓度可能导致了人群呼吸系统疾病患病增加,PM_(2.5)浓度对人群呼吸系统疾病患病增加尚无明显效应。Objective To analyze the short-term health effects of PM 2.5 and PM 10 on human respiratory system in Suqian city. Methods Daily data of air pollutions concentration, meteorology data, outpatient quantity of hospitals and mortality in Suqian city in 2016 were collected. Generalized additive models were established by R software to analyze the short-term effects of PM 2.5 and PM 10 on daily outpatient quantity and daily mortality of respiratory diseases. Ressults PM 10 concentration in Suqian city in 2016 was influential on daily outpatient quantity of respiratory diseases, which was positively correlated with lagged 1 day outpatient quantity. Daily outpatient quantity of respiratory diseases increased 0.26%（95% CI： 0.01%-0.51%） for every 10 μg/m 3 of PM 10 incensement. Nor the effect of PM 2.5 on daily respiratory outpatient quantity or the effect of PM 2.5 , PM 10 on daily mortality of respiratory diseases were statistically significant （all P 〉0.05）. Conclusion PM 10 concentration might increase prevalence of respiratory diseases in Suqian city in 2016. However, PM 2.5 concentration had no significant effect on respiratory diseases incensement in local population .

关 键 词：PM2.5 PM10 空气污染 广义相加模型 健康效应 呼吸系统疾病 R软件 

分 类 号：R122.7[医药卫生—环境卫生学]