一种评估舰艇损管指挥行动效能的概率统计量化方法  

A Probability Statistics Quantization Method for Evaluating the Effectiveness of Naval Vessel Damage Control Command Action

作　　者：任凯[1] 李营[1] 伞兵[1] REN Kai;LI Ying;SAN Bing(School of Power Engineering,Naval University of Engineering,Wuhan 430033,Chin)

机构地区：[1]海军工程大学动力工程学院,湖北武汉430033

出　　处：《指挥控制与仿真》2018年第4期52-56,共5页Command Control & Simulation

基　　金：海军十三五预研基金(1020201021001)

摘　　要：基于概率统计量化评估舰艇损管指挥行动效能模型提出了一种客观评价指挥行为的方法。围绕评估指标量选取问题,按照舰艇损管基本要求构建指挥行动效能评估判据,分析了评估要素指标量转化统计量的基本策略,给出依分布律转换计算模型。遵循效能评估对象本质特征和事件树定量分析基本原理,提出基于事件树概率重要度计算评估权值的变权评估模型。运用变权模型和恒权模型分别对案例样本正态分布和均匀分布转换计算结果进行了综合效能评估计算,评估结果体现了目标对象事物发展本质规律。以指挥行为全局影响效果评价为目标,融合"突出优势"和"惩罚缺陷"评估策略对指挥行动效果进行合理量化。A method based on probability and statistics is used to evaluate the operational effectiveness model of naval vessel damage control command action, and an objective evaluation method of command behavior is proposed. Focusing on the problem of index scalar selection, a command action effectiveness evaluation criterion is constructed according to the basic requirements of ship damage control, and the basic strategies of transformation statistics of index elements are analyzed, and the computation model based on distribution law is given. According to the essential characteristics of efficiency evaluation and the basic principles of quantitative analysis of event tree, a variable weight evaluation model based on probability importance degree of event tree is proposed to evaluate weights. By using the variable weight model and constant weight model, the comprehensive ettectiveness evaluation of nonnal and uniform transformation results of case samples is carried out respectively, and the evaluation results reflect the essential rule of object development. Taking the evaluation of command behavior and global impact as the goal, quantify the ettect of command action reasonably with the evaluation strategy of ＂prominent advantage＂ and ＂punishment detect＂.

关 键 词：专家系统 效能评估 概率重要度 损管指挥 

分 类 号：U674.7[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程] E925[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]