宁夏冬季气温变化与大气环流异常的关系  

Relationship between the Variation of Winter Temperature in Ningxia and Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies

作　　者：董国庆 陈志超 郑广芬 李丽平[5] 王素艳[1,4] DONG Guo-qing;CHENZhi-chao;ZHENG Guang-fen;LI Li-ping;WANGSu-yan(Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning and Risk Management of Characteristic Agriculture in Arid Regions ’ CMA/Ningxia Key Lab of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction1,Yinchuan 75000 Meteorological Bureau2 ’ Shiziaislian 753200,China;Wulian Meteorological Bureau3 ’ Rizliao 26230Center4,Yinchuan 750002,China;Nanjing University of Information Science ＆ Technology5,Nanjing 210044,Chin)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室/宁夏气象防灾减灾重点实验室,银川750002 [2]宁夏回族自治区惠农区气象局2,石嘴山753200 [3]山东省五莲县气象局3,日照262300 [4]宁夏回族自治区气候中心4,银川750002 [5]南京信息工程大学5,南京210044

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2018年第21期10-15,共6页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201724)和宁夏回族自治区重点研发计划(2016KJHM129)资助

摘　　要：利用1961~2015年冬季(12月到次年2月)宁夏20个气象站月平均气温资料,NCEP/NCAR发布的500 h Pa位势高度场和海平面气压场,200 h Pa、850 h Pa风场月平均再分析资料,运用线性倾向估计、M-K法及合成分析等方法,在研究宁夏冬季平均气温的年际变化及年代际变化特征的基础上,分突变前后的冷、暖期时段进一步分析大气环流场不同影响因子与宁夏冬季气温异常的关系,揭示宁夏冬季气温异常的成因。结果表明:(1)宁夏冬季平均气温由冷变暖的趋势非常显著,在1985年之前为冷期,1985年以后为暖期;冬季平均气温年代际变化在20世纪增暖趋势显著,21世纪后上升趋势趋于平缓。(2)不仅500 h Pa位势高度场的乌拉尔山高压脊和西太平洋副高是影响宁夏冬季气温异常的主要系统,海平面气压场的西伯利亚高压也是影响宁夏冬季气温异常的关键系统;高低空的偏北气流和偏南暖湿气流异常流场也对宁夏冬季气温变化造成一定影响。Based on the monthly temperature data of 20 meteorological stations in Ningxia and the NCEP/NCARmonthly mean reanalysis data of 500 hPa geopotential height field and sea level pressure,200 hPa and 850 hPa wind field in winter （ December to February） from 1961 to 2015, by applying the metiiods of linear tendency estimate, the M-Kmethod and synthetic analysis, on the study of the interannual and inter-decadal variawinter average temperature in Ningxia,the relationship between the different influencing factocirculation field and the winter temperature anomalies in Ningxia were further analyzed during cold and warm peri-ods before and after t!ie mutation point,to reveal the cause of Ningxia winter temperature anomalies. The results showed these as follows.①Trend from cold to warm of winter average temperature in Ningxia was very significant, the winter average temperature in Ningxia before 1985 was a cold period, while after 1985 it was a warm period; The warming tendency of the inter-decadal variation of winter average temperature was signtury,however in the 21 st century the rise was leveling off. ②For winter temperature anomalies in Ningxia district,not only the high-pressure ridge of 500 hPa geopotential height field over Ural Mountains,and west pacific subtropi-cal high were the main afecting system ,but also Siberan high pressure of sea level pressure field ; Abnormal fieldof the north-deflected airflow and the south-deflected warmand moist airflow of high and low level also had an influ-ence.

关 键 词：平均气温 年代际变化 大气环流 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]