基于公交限时免费换乘的居民出行方式选择建模与分析  

Modeling and Analysis of Travel Mode for Urban Residents Based on Transit Time-limited Free Transfer

作　　者：潘福全[1] 王健[1] 亓荣杰 张丽霞[1] 杨金顺[1] 张广政 PAN Fu-quan;WANG Jian;QI Rong-jie;ZHANG Li-xia;YANG Jin-siiun;Zhang Guang-zheng(School of Automobile and Transportation,Qingdao University of Technology,Qingdao 266520,Chin)

机构地区：[1]青岛理工大学汽车与交通学院,青岛266520

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2018年第21期129-133,共5页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51505244)、山东省自然科学基金(ZR2016EEM14)和中国博士后科学基金(2016M590626)资助

摘　　要：为了促进城市公共交通的发展,鼓励市民公交出行,多地推行公交限时免费换乘政策。为了研究该政策对于居民出行方式选择结构的影响,运用效用最大化原理,改进了非集计模型,建立了居民出行方式选择模型。调查了青岛实施公交限时免费换乘政策前后通勤出行者的年龄、月收入、职业、出行距离和出行时间等特征,获取了相应数据;以此数据为例进行了模型检验,结果发现所建立的模型计算值与用调查数据直接计算出的公交限时免费换乘政策下公交出行分担率的误差为1.65%,表明该模型的准确性与有效性。该模型为预测城市实行公交限时免费换乘政策后的公交出行分担率提供了一种新方法。For promoting the development of public transit, many cities implement the policy of time-limited free transfer to encourage urban residents to travel by transit. In order to study the influence of t!ie policy on the ur-ban residents＇ travel mode,the principle of utility maximization was utilized to improve the disaggregate model,and establish the choice model of travel mode for urban residents. The travelers＇ features, such as age, monthly in-come, occupation,travel distance and travel time are investigated before and after the implementation of transit time-limited free transfer policy in Qingdao,and the corresponding data obtained. The model has tested with survey data,and the result shows that tiie error of transit travel sharing rate is 1.65% between the value of the model cal-culation and the value of direct calculation used by survey data in the condition of time-limited free transfer,dem-onstrating the accuracy and efectivenes of the model. The proposed travel choice model provides a new method to predict the transit travel sharing rate in a city after implementing the time-limited bus free transfer policy.

关 键 词：城市交通 出行方式选择模型 效用函数 限时免费换乘 非集计模型 

分 类 号：U492.4[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]