基于交叉DEA-Tobit模型的中小企业信用风险评价  

Credit Risk Evaluation of Small and Medium Sized Enterprises Based on Cross DEA-Tobit Model

作　　者：孙浩[1] SUN Hao(School of Statistics and Applied Mathematics,Anhui University of Finance and Economic,Anhui 233030,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学统计与应用数学学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《伊犁师范学院学报（自然科学版）》2018年第2期22-26,共5页Journal of Yili Normal University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：安徽财经大学研究生科研创新基金项目(ACYC2016113)

摘　　要：与大型企业相比,我国中小企业失信违规行为时有发生,研究中小企业的信用风险对促进我国中小企业的健康发展具有重要意义.因此,在对DEA交叉模型进行介绍的基础上,将DEA交叉模型与主成分分析方法相结合,评估出中小企业的相对信用分数和相对信用等级;再运用Tobit回归模型探究企业内部因素对中小企业信用的影响.利用13家中小企业的样本进行实证分析,结果表明:该模型具有可行性和较高的操作性,并且总资产周转率、主营业务收入增长率、资产负债率、基本每股收益以及固定资产净值率对企业的信用水平具有显著影响,而现金流量比率与资产报酬率对企业的影响并不显著.Compared with large enterprises, the credit risk of small and medium-sized enterprises（SMEs） in China is very important to promote the healthy development of SMEs in China. Therefore, based on the introduction of DEA crossover model, the DEA cross model and the principal component analysis method are combined to evaluate the relative credit score and relative credit rating of small and medium-sized enterprises. Tobit regression model is used to explore the internal factors of small and medium-sized enterprises the impact of credit. The results show that the model is feasible and highly operational, and the total assets turnover rate, the main business income growth rate, asset-liability ratio, basic earnings per share and fixed assets The net value ratio has a significant impact on the firm＇s credit level, while the cash flow ratio and the return on assets have no significant effect on the firm.

关 键 词：信用风险评估 DEA交叉模型 TOBIT模型 主成分分析 

分 类 号：F830.91[经济管理—金融学]