中国在沙特推进“一带一路”建设的现状、风险及应对  

“The Belt and Road” Construction in Saudi Arabia:Developments,Risks and China's Countermeasures

作　　者：包澄章[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海外国语大学中东研究所

出　　处：《阿拉伯世界研究》2018年第4期74-89,119-120,共16页Arab World Studies

基　　金：2014年国家社科基金青年项目(14CZJ010);上海市Ⅰ类高峰学科(外国语言文学)建设项目的阶段性成果;上海外国语大学"青年英才海外研修计划";2015年度上海外国语大学校级重大科研项目"当代中国中东外交战略研究"的资助

摘　　要：沙特是中国在中东地区推进"一带一路"建设的重要合作伙伴。近年来,沙特内政与外交政策的重大调整使其面临的潜在风险上升,主要包括:国内权力结构变动和政治集权化趋势使沙特政局走向存在不确定性;经济结构性矛盾和制度不畅制约国内经济转型与改革;本土恐怖主义和胡塞武装越境袭击加重国内安全压力;宗教保守势力反弹和宗教极端主义泛滥增加社会不稳定因素。在此背景下,中国在沙特推进"一带一路"建设需要进一步确保中沙合作的政策延续性和平衡中国与沙特及伊朗的关系,适应沙特国内经济转型阵痛并最大程度地实现中沙发展战略对接,同时防范恐怖主义和胡塞武装越境袭击对在沙中国公民和企业的威胁。Saudi Arabia is considered as one of China's key partners in promoting "The Belt and Road"Initiative in the Middle East. In recent years,the dramatic shifts in Saudi's internal and external policies have increased potential risks to the Kingdom : political uncertainty mounts given the reshufflingof inner internal power structure and political centralization of King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman; its economic transformations and reforms are hindered by structural challenges and institutional blockages; indigenous terrorism and Houthi militias-led cross-border rocket attacks have aggravated its domestic security; backlash of religious conservative forces and the spread of religious extremists are increasing social instability and security pressure inside the Kingdom. In this context,to promote "The Belt and Road"construction in Saudi Arabia,China needs further efforts to ensure policy continuity in bilateral cooperation,balance its relations with both Saudi Arabia and its regional rival Iran. Meanwhile, China has to make adaptation to Saudi's radical economic transformation while better synergize development strategies between the two states,and to prevent terrorism and Houthis-led attacks from threatening Chinese citizens and companies in Saudi Arabia.

关 键 词：沙特 “一带一路” 政治风险 经济风险 安全风险 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]