沙特政权危机的历史根源及当代演变  

The Historical Roots of Saudi Arabia's Legitimacy Crisis and Its Recent Evolution

作　　者：张卫婷[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海国际问题研究院

出　　处：《阿拉伯世界研究》2018年第4期90-104,共15页Arab World Studies

基　　金：上海市哲学社会科学规划一般项目"‘一带一路’背景下中国与伊斯兰大国参与全球经济治理及合作机制研究"(2016BGJ001)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：沙特家族在建国进程中先后与瓦哈比派和美国结盟,分别构成沙特政权国内和国际合法性的主要支撑。但两个合法性之间的极化对立限制了沙特的国家建构,成为其政权危机的历史根源。沙特政府曾经尝试推进社会自由化和宗教保守化改革,均未能有效解决这一结构性矛盾。长期以来,单一石油经济成为维系既有上层建筑和调节政权与社会关系的唯一有效工具。但随着人口持续膨胀和政治参与预期增长,以及石油收入稳定性下降,沙特社会危机日益累积。"阿拉伯之春"以来,美国主导的地区体系趋于崩溃,瓦哈比派意识形态受到直接挑战,加之油价大幅下跌,沙特政权危机集中爆发。王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼对沙特内政外交的剧烈调整,其目的在于从根源上应对政权危机,为推动国家全面改革准备条件。Wahhabism and US instrumental roles have been institutionalized as two major pillars to the Saudi state-building. The polarity between the two pillars poses an innate regime legitimacy deficiency and a big obstacle to Saudi political evolution. Both liberal reform and Wahhabi governance attempted by the Saudi government encountered impasse,failing to address the structural imbalance within the establishment. Sole oil income has become the only effective tool to moderate the relations between the state and the society while upholding the established institutions. The combination of a soaring population and increasing expectation for participation blunted the oil income as a governance tool while adding to the risk of social revolution. Both regime pillars failed to respond effectively to the"Arab Spring",power consolidation by the House of Saud was left to be the last resort. The radical reorientation of both domestic and regional policies orchestrated by Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman is not only a reflection of the radicalization of Saudi youth,but a fresh attempt to address the root cause of the regime crisis which is necessary for all round social and economic reform.

关 键 词：沙特 政权危机 石油经济 穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]