赤潮所致贝类毒素中毒事件风险评估指标体系及应用研究  

Risk assessment indexes for shellfish poisoning outbreak caused by red tide

作　　者：杨盛旭[1] 魏晶娇[2] 何凡[3] YANG Shengxu;WEI Jingjiao;HE Fan(Sanmen Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Taizhou 317199,Zhejiang Province,China;Department of Immunology,Wenzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Wenzhou 325000,Zhejiang Province,China;Department of Public Health Surveillance and Advisory,Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hangzhou 310051,China)

机构地区：[1]三门县疾病预防控制中心,浙江台州317199 [2]温州市疾病预防控制中心免疫科,浙江温州325000 [3]浙江省疾病预防控制中心公共卫生监测与业务指导所,浙江杭州310051

出　　处：《浙江大学学报（医学版）》2018年第2期111-117,共7页Journal of Zhejiang University(Medical Sciences)

基　　金：浙江省重点科技创新团队计划(2011R50021)

摘　　要：目的:构建赤潮所致贝类毒素中毒事件风险评估指标体系和权重。方法:从风险发生的可能性、风险发生后的公共卫生影响、人群脆弱性和应对能力四个方面,利用文献复习法、头脑风暴法和专家咨询法系统梳理风险评估指标体系,用层次分析法计算指标权重,并将权重与TOPSIS法相结合,计算相对风险指数(风险综合指数);制订统一的赋值标准,根据指标实际值重新赋值后,计算绝对风险分值。结果:共确定了赤潮所致贝类毒素中毒事件风险的4个一级指标和17个二级指标,17个二级指标中权重值较大的是赤潮毒素相关信息人群知晓率(0.0876)、就医可及性(0.0840)、可能波及人数(0.0716)、当地实验室检测能力(0.0703)、海产品食用习惯(0.0644),这5个指标约占总权重的38%。专家评分矩阵的一致性检验统计量CR值均小于0.1。以温州市苍南县开展应用性研究,麻痹性、腹泻性、神经性和记忆缺失性四种贝类毒素中毒事件的相对风险指数分别为0.4526、0.7116、0.1657、0.2884,绝对风险分值分别为0.2542、0.2668、0.1907、0.2184,两种计算方法所得的风险顺位一致。结论:建立了赤潮所致贝类毒素中毒事件风险评估指标体系和权重,为防范和降低贝类毒素中毒事件发生的风险提供了科学手段。Objective： To establish the indexes and weights of risk assessment of shellfish poisoning outbreak caused by red tide. Methods： The risk assessment indexes were developed with the methods of literature review, brainstorm and expert consultation,and the weights of indexes were calculated by the method of analytic hierarchy process. The established indexes contained the risk possibility,impacts of public health, population vulnerability and resilience. The relative risk indexes（ integrated risk indexes） of different shellfish poisoning were computed by combining hierarchy process and TOPSIS methods. Moreover,the weights of indexes were further used to generate absolute risk values by multiplying indexes. Results： Four primary indexes and 17 secondary indexes were identified for risk assessment of shellfish poisoning outbreak. Of 17 secondary indexes,the knowing rate of shellfish poisoning,medical accessibility,the number of people being affected,laboratory testing capacity and the habits of eating seafood of local residents had relatively large weights（ 0. 0876,0. 0840,0. 0716,0. 0703 and 0. 0644,respectively）,which accounted for nearly 38%of the total weight. All consistency ratio（ CR） were less than 0. 1. The index system was applied in Cangnan county of Zhejiang province. The results showed the relative risk indexes of paralytic shellfish poisoning（ PSP）, diarrhetic shellfish poisoning（ DSP）,neurotoxic shellfish poisoning（ NSP） and amnesic shellfish poisoning（ ASP）were 0. 4526,0. 7116,0. 1657 and 0. 2884, and the absolute risk values were0. 2542,0. 2668,0. 1907 and 0. 2184,respectively. The risk orders of the 4 kinds of shellfish poisoning sorted by relative risk indexes and absolute risk values were consistent. Conclusion： The indexes and weights of risk assessment of shellfish poisoning outbreak caused by red tide are established,which can provide scientific advice for prevention and control of shellfish poisoning outbreak.

关 键 词：贝类 毒素类 生物学 风险评估 生命统计 公共卫生 

分 类 号：R18[医药卫生—流行病学]