从垃圾桶到多源流再到要素嵌入修正——一项公共政策研究工作的总结和探索  

From Garbage Can Model to Multiple Streams Model and the Factor-embedding Modification: A Summary and Exploration of Public Policy Research

作　　者：杨志军[1] YANG Zhijun(School of Public Administration,Guizhou University,Guiyang,Guizhou,55002)

机构地区：[1]贵州大学公共管理学院,贵州贵阳550025

出　　处：《行政论坛》2018年第4期61-69,共9页Administrative Tribune

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目"环境抗争引发非常规政策变迁的生成机理及优化策略研究"(15CZZ034);贵州省软科学研究计划项目"贵州省精准扶贫的IAD框架保障研究"(黔科合基础[2016]1512-3号);贵州大学文科重大科研项目"地方治理中的学习型政策变迁范式研究"(GDZT201505);贵州大学长征文化研究专项课题"长征精神与贵州扶贫攻坚战略研究"(GDZX2017004)

摘　　要：基于政策过程的决策途径探究政策世界的模糊性,需要依靠模型并致力于改进模型,从垃圾桶到多源流,都在做出这种努力。垃圾桶要解决的模糊性命题是"决策活动有组织的无政府状态",多源流则是要解决"决策系统的动态非平衡状态"。多源流对垃圾桶的改进主要是两点:一是将四源流调整为问题、政策和政治等三个源流;二是用政策之窗替代决策的机会,三条独立的源流汇合从而开启政策之窗。但是多源流模型自身存在逻辑自洽不足以及与中国经验的差离,采取"要素嵌入"视角对其进行修正是可行方法。《初步修正》构建了一个基于要素排序嵌入源流的占比修正图,《优化研究》则构建一个主导性要素嵌入源流过程图,主导性要素牵引和中介变量推动,促进源流汇合,打开政策之窗。在建构具有中国本土特色的政策过程理论中,这项研究工作开放接受学术同人批评。To explore the ambiguity of the policy world that based on the decision-making approach of policy process, we need to rely on the model and devote to improve the model. The ambiguity proposition that the garbage can model （GCM） attempts to solve is ＂the anarchic state of decision-making activity＂, whilst the ＂dy- namic unbalanced state of decision-making system＂ is solved by multiple streams model （MSM）. MSM involves two main points to improve GCM： one is to simplify the four streams to three streams; second is to substitute the policy window for the decision-making opportunity, and the policy window will be opened when the three streams converge. However, MSM is logically inconsistency and the model may fail to explain the Chinese experience. It is feasible to modify the MSM from the angle of factor-embedding. The ＇Preliminary Modification＇ constructed intermediary variables to facilitate the convergence of streams and the open of the policy window. The ＇Opti- mization Research＇ constructed a flow chart that indicating how the leading factor directs and how the mediator motivates the flow to converge and the window of policy to open. This study clarifies the policy process theory with Chinese characteristics and welcome criticism from other colleagues.

关 键 词：模糊性 垃圾桶 多源流 要素嵌入 政策过程 

分 类 号：D63-31[政治法律—政治学]