中国能源进口贸易的持续期——基于生存分析法  

The duration of China's energy imports based on survival analysis

作　　者：刘宏曼[1] 李星晨 LIU Hongman;LI Xingchen(College of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《资源科学》2018年第7期1438-1449,共12页Resources Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(17BJY225)

摘　　要：本文基于生存分析法,利用CEPII-BACI数据库1995-2015年HS6分位的进口数据,研究了中国能源进口持续期的基本特征,并在此基础上对贸易持续期的影响因素进行实证分析。研究结果表明:中国能源产品进口持续期较短,均值和中位数分别为2.045年和1年,生存函数表现出负的时间依存性。同时,生存时间存在明显的"门槛效应",生存时间一旦超过5年则贸易中断的可能性较小,因此应当注意针对贸易初期提供更多的政策支持。对于不同的产品类别和进口来源地区,能源产品进口持续期呈现一定的差异性,贸易政策的制定应该因地制宜。在贸易持续期的诸多影响因素中,双边距离、是否接壤等传统引力变量和政治环境、政治冲突等国家层面因素对进口持续期的影响显著,贸易历史、贸易段长度、产品单价、市场份额、初始额度等产品层面因素也对进口持续期产生显著影响,并且实证结果具有稳健性。最后,提出了加强基础设施建设、维护贸易关系、寻求长期稳定的贸易伙伴、参与全球能源治理等稳定能源供给的政策建议。Based on HS 6-digit data from the CEPII-BACI dataset from 1995 to 2015, the survival analysis method was used to study the basic characteristics of China＇s energy import duration and factors affecting trade duration. The results showed that China＇s energy import duration was short,with a mean of 2.05 years and median of 1 year. There was negative duration dependence, but if a spell was able to survive more than 5 years it would face a very small probability of failure.Attention should be paid to providing more policy support during the early stages of trade. There were some differences in China＇s energy import duration for different product categories and regions, so trade policy should be adapted to local conditions. Among influencing factors, traditional gravity variables such as distance and contiguity had significant negative and positive effects on China＇s energy import duration respectively. National level factors such as polity score and political conflict both had significant positive influences on import duration. Product level factors such as history, spell length, market share and initial value all had significant positive effects on import duration, but unit value had a negative effect on the import duration. We used different methods and samples so the results are robust and stable. In order to stabilize China＇s energy import, we propose policy suggestions that strength infrastructure construction, maintain trade relations,identify political risks, seek long-term and stable trade partners, and actively participate in global energy governance and cooperation.

关 键 词：能源进口 持续期 生存分析 离散选择模型 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济] F752.61