应用调整Serfling回归模型估计天津市2010-2016年手足口病超额病例数  

Application of adjusted Serfling regression model to estimate the excess numbers of hand foot mouth disease in Tianjin during 2010-2016

作　　者：董晓春[1] 李佳萌[1] 李琳[1] DONG Xiao-chun;LI Jia-meng;LI Lin(Tianjin Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Tianjin 300011,China)

机构地区：[1]天津市疾病预防控制中心,天津300011

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2018年第14期2497-2500,共4页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金："十二五"国家科技重大专项"传染病监测技术平台"项目(2012ZX10004209);天津市卫生局科技基金项目(2014KZ044)

摘　　要：目的应用调整Serfling回归模型,估计天津市2010-2016年手足口病的超额发病数。方法利用天津市2010-2016年报告的手足口病的分周的发病数,拟合调整Serfling回归模型,估计其相关超额发病数。结果调整Serfling回归拟合优度检验R2=0.916。经调整Serfling回归判定的2010-2016年间手足口病的流行周共计105周,占全部周次总数的20.77%。超额发病病例数总数为21 706例,占总发病例数的16.44%。2010-2014年超额发病数较多的流行周次主要集中在5-7月;2011、2014-2016年的10-11月出现超额发病情况;自2012年起,连续5年2-3月超过流行阈值。结论应用调整Serfling回归评估手足口病超额发病拟合效果较好,除了传统流行季节外,冬春以及秋冬交替季节也应重视手足口病的防控。ive： Objective To estimate the excess case numbers of hand foot and mouth disease（HFMD） in 2010-2016 in Tianjin by using Serfling regression model. Methods The incidence of hand foot mouth disease（HFMD） in Tianjin was reported by 2010-2016, and the Serfling regression model was fitted to estimate the excess case numbers. Results Adjusted Serfling regression goodness of fit test R2= 0.916. From 2010 to 2016, the prevalence weeks of hand foot mouth disease were105, accounting for about 20.77% of the total number of weeks. The total excess case numbers were 21706, accounting for16.44% of the total number of cases. In 2012, the excess case numbers were more concentrated in May to July. Meanwhile,excess numbers appeared in Oct to Nov in 2011, and 2014 to 2016. For 5 consecutive years since 2012, the incidence of HFMD was higher than the epidemic threshold in Feb to Mar. Conclusion The application of adjusted Serfling regression to estimate the excess numbers of HFMD had good fitting effect. In addition to the traditional season, attention should also be paid to prevent and control of hand foot mouth disease in the early spring and winter.

关 键 词：手足口病 调整Serfling回归模型 超额病例数 

分 类 号：R181.2[医药卫生—流行病学]