黑河径流对LUCC和气候变化的敏感性分析  

Sensitivity of Runoff to LUCC and Climate Change in the Heihe River Basin

作　　者：罗开盛 陶福禄[2,3] LUO Kai-sheng;TAO Fu-lu(School of Remote Sensing and Geomatics Engineering,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,Jiangsu,China;Key Laboratory for Surface Pattern and Processes,Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources,Chinese Academy of Scienees,Beijing 10010!,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学遥感与测绘工程学院,江苏南京210044 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室,北京100101 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2018年第4期753-760,共8页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFA0604703);南京信息工程大学人才启动基金项目(2017r091)

摘　　要：为了定量评估径流对土地利用变化（LUCC）和气候变化的敏感性及其时空变异,基于土地利用、土壤、数字高程（DEM）、气象和实测径流数据,借助SWAT模型,并结合统计方法定量评估了黑河径流对LUCC和气候变化的敏感性。结果表明：1980—2009年流域径流对LUCC的敏感性值为0.020 mm·km^-2。径流对LUCC的敏感性从大到小分别是上游（0.108 mm·km^-2）、中游（0.004 mm·km^-2）和下游（0.001 mm·km^-2）。1 mm降雨变化在上游、中游和下游引起的产水量变化分别是0.49-0.288 mm、0.006-0.038 mm和0-0.002 mm。1℃气温变化在上游、中游和下游引起的产水量变化分别是13.413-78.902 mm、1.105-6.500 mm和0.461-2.710 mm。径流对气温的敏感程度要远远高于对降水的敏感度。在时间趋势上,径流对LUCC的敏感性表现出下降趋势;上游表现出减少趋势,而下游表现出增加趋势。流域径流对气温的敏感性表现为上升趋势。The purposes of this study was to quantitatively assess the sensitivity of runoff to climate change and land use/cover change（LUCC）in the Heihe River Basin during the period of 1980-2009.The study was based on the multiple data sources including the data of land use,digital elevation,soil,weather and runoff during the study period using the SWAT model.The results indicated that the sensitivity value of runoff to LUCC during the period of 1980-2009 was 0.020 mm·km^（-2）.Moreover,the runoff changes caused by the variation of 1 mm precipitation in the upper,middle and lower streams were 0.49-0.288,0.006-0.038 and 0-0.002 mm,and those caused by the variation of 1℃temperature in the upper,middle and lower streams were 13.413-78.902,1.105-6.500 and 0.461-2.710 mm,respectively.It was further found that the sensitivity of runoff to temperature was much higher than that to precipitation.The sensitivities of runoff to LUCC in the upper,middle and lower streams were 0.108,0.004 and 0.001 mm·km^-2 during the period from 1980 to 2009.Temporally,the sensitivity of runoff to LUCC in the whole drainage basin was holistically in a downward trend,and it was in a decrease trend in the upper stream but an increase trend in the lower reaches.The sensitivity of runoff to temperature in the drainage basin was in an increase trend during the period of 1980-2009.

关 键 词：径流 气候变化 LUCC 敏感性 SWAT模型 黑河 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学] P467[水利工程—水文学及水资源]